Match Info

Premier League - Round 29

Date: 24 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Žetisu Stadion (Taldykorgan) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Sulikanov S. (Kaz)


	Zhetysu		Tobol Kostanay

	1	X	2
	2.18	3.3	2.95	Watch
	2.11	3.63	3.03
	2.12	3.65	2.92	Watch
	2.04	3.55	2.75
	2.18	3.72	2.98	Watch
	2.19	3.3	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↓ (3.08)	3.53 ↑ (3.43)	2.93 ↑ (2.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Zhetysu
42.8%

Draw
26%

Tobol Kostanay
31.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

30.1%

27.1%

42.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29%

26.1%

44.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Zhetysu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Zhetysu's performance.

Tobol Kostanay has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tobol Kostanay might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zhetysu than the current prediction. (-13.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Zhetysu that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tobol Kostanay than the current prediction. (+13.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tobol Kostanay could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	20%	40%

Zhetysu - Tobol Kostanay Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Zhetysu will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Tobol will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tobol (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
88. Sicaci S. (G) 4. Kashken D. 5. Orynbassar R. 3. Luna D. 11. Dobay A. 7. Muzhikov S. (C) 10. Mosiashvili T. 15. Pajovic J. 9. Abzalov S. 77. Anuarbekov N. 23. Baltabekov A.	44. Ustimenko D. (G) 72. Senhadji R. 4. Cavnic N. 5. Ndiaye P. 3. Asrankulov R. 8. Tagybergen A. (C) 6. Myakish M. 7. Zhumashev Z. 30. Guerra L. 99. Lisakovich V. 14. Talal A.
Substitutes
8. Adakhadziev A. 31. Akhmetov A. 20. Anuarbek S. 2. Aslan R. 1. Egorov A. (G) 55. Kurmanakhan Y. 22. Podymskiy D. (G) 18. Shvyrev V. 21. Zhakipbayev M. 40. Zhamalov B.	34. Bakhytkiriev S. 38. Bakitzhanov A. 25. Borsic A. 1. Busurmanov S. (G) 13. Cisse A. 35. Melikhov Y. (G) 18. Milovanovic U. 19. Zhumat D. 17. Zuev A.
Coaches
Nurdauletov K.	Romashchenko M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
14', 1 - 0, Baltabekov A. ⚽, Mosiashvili T. (A),
27', Mosiashvili T. 🟨,
41', Lisakovich V. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Senhadji R. ↓, Zuev A. ↑,
67', Zhumashev Z. ↓, Milovanovic U. ↑,
70', 1 - 1, Talal A. ⚽,
76', Mosiashvili T. ↓, Zhakipbayev M. ↑,
81', Tagybergen A. ↓, Zhumat D. ↑,
81', Abzalov S. ↓, Shvyrev V. ↑,
90+1', Anuarbekov N. ↓, Anuarbek S. ↑,
90+4', Orynbassar R. 🟨,

Preview

Crucial home points are at stake for a lower-table team looking to climb out of danger (ranked 15th in the Relegation - First League and 7th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Zhetysu won 0.

Zhetysu has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Tobol is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Recently, Tobol has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Zhetysu has recorded 1 win, 6 draws, and 13 losses, with a goal aggregate of 12:28 (averaging 0.6:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Zhetysu against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, with 2:10 goals (averaging 0.3:1.4 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Tobol	29	12	5	12	40:39	1	41
15	Zhetysu Taldykorgan	29	6	8	15	29:47	-18	26

Last Results with these Odds

Zhetysu - the odds 3.08 are the expected chance of winning is 30.1%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Zhetysu
Kazakh Premier League
17.10.26	Zhetysu - Kaisar	2:1 ✺
10.10.26	Kairat - Zhetysu	1:0 ✺
18.09.26	Zhetysu - Kaspiy Aktau	0:1 ✺
12.09.26	Yelimay Semey - Zhetysu	2:1 ✺
05.09.26	Zhetysu - Ertis Pavlodar	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WLLLW
- Tobol Kostanay
Kazakh Premier League
17.10.26	Tobol Kostanay - Zhenis	4:2 ✺
10.10.26	Tobol Kostanay - Astana	2:1 ✺
17.09.26	Tobol Kostanay - Yelimay Semey	0:2 ✺
13.09.26	Kairat - Tobol Kostanay	1:4 ✺
06.09.26	Tobol Kostanay - Ulytau	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.8 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
16.03.26	Tobol Kostanay - Zhetysu	2:2
19.10.25	Zhetysu - Tobol Kostanay	1:2
21.06.25	Tobol Kostanay - Zhetysu	2:1
Kazakh Cup
13.04.25	Tobol Kostanay - Zhetysu	1:0 ET
Kazakh Premier League
18.08.24	Zhetysu - Tobol Kostanay	0:3
04.05.24	Tobol Kostanay - Zhetysu	1:0
24.09.23	Tobol Kostanay - Zhetysu	1:2

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