Match Info

Premier League - Round 6

Date: 19 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadion Metallurg (Zhezqazghan)

Referee: Chekhovsky G. (Kaz)


	Ulytau		Tobol Kostanay

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.78	3.35	2.3	Watch
	3.18	3.54	2.14
	2.61	3.61	2.34	Watch
	2.8	3.2	2.25
	2.75	3.53	2.4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.82 ↓ (3.32)	3.45 ↑ (3.32)	2.29 ↑ (2.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ulytau
32.7%

Draw
26.8%

Tobol Kostanay
40.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.7%

44.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.1%

23.9%

38.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ulytau has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

Tobol Kostanay has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ulytau than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tobol Kostanay than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	33.3%	66.7%

Ulytau - Tobol Kostanay Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Tobol will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Nepogodov D. (G) 13. Malikaydar S. 28. Bugulov G. 25. Bukhal G. 3. Keiler S. 10. Taubay A. 18. Bougnone A. 14. Harada H. 90. Martin D. 11. Smith A. 7. Kishi K.	44. Ustimenko D. (G) 22. Marochkin A. 4. Cavnic N. 5. Ndiaye P. 15. Vukcevic M. 8. Tagybergen A. 6. Myakish M. 3. Asrankulov R. 30. Guerra L. 7. Zhumashev Z. 18. Milovanovic U.
Substitutes
20. Abylaykhan R. 12. Afanasenko V. 4. Chalkin M. 17. Daniyarov B. 22. Kospayev E. 69. Maulenov D. 21. Nurali O. 6. Nursultanov K. 9. Serikkul R. 77. Shauymbay M. 40. Shcherbakov S. (G) 78. Zakirov T. (G)	1. Busurmanov S. (G) 13. Cisse A. 26. Glushchenkov K. 99. Hebaj R. 88. Kalmyrza M. 11. Marat D. 33. Pivovarov I. 14. Talal A. 29. Usenov D. 21. Zhagorov N. 19. Zhumat D. 17. Zuev A.
Coaches
Mazbaev N.	Zhumaskaliyev N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Milovanovic U. ⚽, Vukcevic M. (A),
15', Martin D. 🟨,
30', Milovanovic U. 🟨,
41', 1 - 1, Martin D. ⚽, Smith A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
47', Marochkin A. 🟨,
50', 2 - 1, Smith A. (Penalty Awarded),
58', Zhumashev Z. ↓, Hebaj R. ↑,
58', Asrankulov R. ↓, Zuev A. ↑,
58', Myakish M. ↓, Cisse A. ↑,
61', Martin D. 🟥,
68', Kishi K. ↓, Chalkin M. ↑,
76', Guerra L. 🟨,
78', Guerra L. ↓, Zhumat D. ↑,
78', Smith A. ↓, Abylaykhan R. ↑,
78', Taubay A. ↓, Nursultanov K. ↑,
88', Ndiaye P. ↓, Zhagorov N. ↑,
90+3', Harada H. ↓, Serikkul R. ↑,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 7 and 15 in the zone Relegation ~ First League).

Ulytau has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Tobol is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Ulytau may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Tobol will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Ulytau won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:4. (average 1:2).

Including home match between the teams, Ulytau won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Tobol	26	10	4	12	33:35	-2	34
9	Ulytau	26	8	8	10	24:32	-8	32

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Ulytau
Kazakh Premier League
12.04.26	Altai Semey - Ulytau	1:2 ✺
Kazakh Cup
09.04.26	Taraz - Ulytau	4:1 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
05.04.26	Ulytau - Aktobe	1:1 ✺
21.03.26	Okzhetpes - Ulytau	2:1 ✺
16.03.26	Ulytau - Kyzylzhar	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 WLTLW
- Tobol Kostanay
Kazakh Premier League
11.04.26	Tobol Kostanay - Kairat	1:1 ✺
04.04.26	Yelimay Semey - Tobol Kostanay	1:0 ✺
20.03.26	Astana - Tobol Kostanay	2:0 ✺
16.03.26	Tobol Kostanay - Zhetysu	2:2 ✺
07.03.26	Aktobe - Tobol Kostanay	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 TLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
26.10.25	Ulytau - Tobol Kostanay	2:2
01.03.25	Tobol Kostanay - Ulytau	2:0

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