Match Info

Premier League - Round 17

Date: 12 July 2026, Sunday

Location: Astana Arena (Astana)

Where to Watch on TV:


Kazakhstan	Qazsport
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Astana		Aktobe

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.95	3.20	3.40
	3	3.2	2.25	Watch
	2.93	3.25	2.33
	2.98	3.26	2.25	Watch
	2.85	3.1	2.3
	3.1	3.36	2.23	Watch
	2.95	3.2	2.23
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.82 ↑ (2.21)	3.22 ↑ (3.03)	2.43 ↓ (3.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Astana
32.9%

Draw
28.8%

Aktobe
38.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.6%

30.4%

28%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.1%

31.5%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Astana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Astana's form might have worsened.

Aktobe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Aktobe's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Astana than the current prediction. (+10.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Astana, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aktobe than the current prediction. (-11.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Aktobe, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	6.7%	13.3%

Astana - Aktobe Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Astana will win (votes: 12 - 80%). Aktobe will win (votes: 2 - 13.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 6.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Astana: 59.8% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Aktobe (1.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Aktobe (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
74. Seysen M. (G) 72. Basmanov S. 4. Anuarov S. 45. Miladinovic I. 77. Shomko D. (C) 21. Merkel A. 91. Token A. 8. Basic I. 57. Kaltanov A. 20. Ahanonu N. 17. Marat D.	16. Zarutskiy A. (G) 31. Tanzharikov A. 18. Ordets I. 5. Kairov B. (C) 27. Dosmagambetov T. 6. Atanasov J. 20. Zhukov G. 14. Pibe 17. Nani 77. Zaria G. 11. Shushenachev A.
Substitutes
47. Abrayev M. 2. Bartolec K. 93. Condric J. (G) 9. Islamkhan B. 3. Kalaica B. 7. Karaman D. 81. Karimov R. 99. Karpikov D. (G) 52. Tokenov T. 10. Tomasov M. 11. Vorogovskiy Y. 84. Zheksenbek A.	21. Alvarez P. 48. Kenzhegulov A. 29. Kikbaev M. 83. Korganbaev P. (G) 4. Kusyapov T. 19. Laturnus V. 22. Seydakhmet E. 7. Sosah D. 49. Toregali N. 1. Trofimets I. (G)
Coaches
Babayan G.	Tarkovic S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
11', Kairov B. 🟨,
12', 1 - 0, Shomko D. ⚽, Kaltanov A. (A),
43', 1 - 1, Zaria G. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Kalaica B. ↓, Vorogovskiy Y. ↑,
52', Zhukov G. ↓, Alvarez P. ↑,
55', 1 - 2, Shushenachev A. ⚽,
58', 2 - 2, Basic I. ⚽,
58', Kaltanov A. ↓, Islamkhan B. ↑,
58', Merkel A. ↓, Karaman D. ↑,
58', Marat D. ↓, Abrayev M. ↑,
58', Zaria G. ↓, Sosah D. ↑,
58', Pibe ↓, Kusyapov T. ↑,
87', Nani 🟨,
88', Dosmagambetov T. ↓, Seydakhmet E. ↑,
88', Shushenachev A. ↓, Laturnus V. ↑,
88', Ahanonu N. ↓, Karimov R. ↑,
90+3', 3 - 2, Basmanov S. ⚽, Islamkhan B. (A),

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 5 and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Astana won 3.

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Aktobe may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Astana might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Astana won 13 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 41:26. (average 2.1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Astana won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 26:12. (average 2.9:1.3).

Outrights of Kazakh Premier League for now

FC Astana: 0.92%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	FC Astana	25	14	6	5	42:25	17	48
5	Aktobe	26	12	6	8	38:31	7	42

Last Results with these Odds

Astana - the odds 2.21 are the expected chance of winning is 41.65%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Astana
UEFA Europa Conference League
09.07.26	Dinamo City - Astana	0:1 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
03.07.26	Astana - Zhenis	1:0 ✺
28.06.26	Zhenis - Astana	2:2 ✺
21.06.26	Aktobe - Astana	2:0 ✺
14.06.26	Astana - Ertis Pavlodar	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WWTLW
- FC Aktobe
Kazakh Premier League
05.07.26	Aktobe - Zhetysu	2:1 ✺
27.06.26	Zhetysu - Aktobe	1:0 ✺
21.06.26	Aktobe - Astana	2:0 ✺
14.06.26	Aktobe - Altai Semey	2:0 ✺
28.05.26	Okzhetpes - Aktobe	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
21.06.26	Aktobe - Astana	2:0
19.10.25	Astana - Aktobe	5:3
22.06.25	Aktobe - Astana	0:1
27.10.24	Astana - Aktobe	2:0
04.05.24	Aktobe - Astana	1:1
30.09.23	Aktobe - Astana	2:0
14.03.23	Astana - Aktobe	1:4

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