Match Info

Premier League - Round 23

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Koblandy Batyr Stadium (Aktobe) 🌤️ ...


	Aktobe		Ordabasy

	1	X	2
	2.85	3.40	2.10
	3.05	3.10	2.06	Watch
	2.98	3.50	2.27
	3.34	3.57	1.97	Watch
	2.90	3.40	2.13
	2.86	3.65	2.24
	3.10	3.45	2.06
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.01 ↓ (3.38)	3.44 ↑ (3.13)	2.12 ↓ (2.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aktobe
30.3%

Draw
26.6%

Ordabasy
43.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

27.3%

29.5%

43.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.7%

28.9%

44.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aktobe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Ordabasy has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aktobe than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ordabasy than the current prediction. (+1%)

Aktobe - Ordabasy Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Zarutskiy A. (G) 5. Kairov B. (C) 18. Ordets I. 13. Miangue S. 31. Tanzharikov A. 6. Atanasov J. 21. Alvarez P. 12. Topalov D. 7. Sosah D. 11. Shushenachev A. 9. Ojo S.	1. Shayzada B. (G) 22. Astanov S. 25. Maliy S. (C) 3. Kilama G. 55. Amanovic A. 77. Abagna D. 16. Capatina M. 15. Amir Z. 19. Leo Natel 9. Everton 28. Johnsen B.
Substitutes
95. Aymbetov A. 27. Dosmagambetov T. 29. Kikbaev M. 4. Kusyapov T. 19. Laturnus V. 17. Nani 14. Pibe 22. Seydakhmet E. 1. Trofimets I. (G) 57. Umaniyazov M. 77. Zaria G. 20. Zhukov G.	24. Abdukhalyk A. (G) 10. Astanov E. 4. Keiler S. 44. Keita T. 23. Nurymbet A. 27. Serik N. 21. Toktybay B. 20. Toktybay M. 13. Tolepbergen K. (G) 14. Turganov A. 11. Vakulko Y. 8. Zhaksybaev U.
Coaches
Cherevchenko I.	Martin A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
21', 1 - 0, Sosah D. ⚽, Topalov D. (A),
37', Tanzharikov A. 🟨,
45', Kairov B. 🟨,
45+1', Shushenachev A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
47', 1 - 1, Leo Natel ⚽,
53', 1 - 2, Maliy S. ⚽, Leo Natel (A),
56', Kilama G. 🟨,
60', Tanzharikov A. ↓, Pibe ↑,
63', Everton ↓, Keita T. ↑,
63', Leo Natel ↓, Astanov E. ↑,
69', Kilama G. ↓, Zhaksybaev U. ↑,
76', Miangue S. ↓, Zhukov G. ↑,
76', Shushenachev A. ↓, Nani ↑,
77', 1 - 3, Keita T. ⚽,
79', Capatina M. ↓, Nurymbet A. ↑,
87', Sosah D. 🟨,
90+2', Abagna D. 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 5 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aktobe won 0.

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

Aktobe may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Aktobe has had a series of away games.

Ordabasy might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Aktobe won 6 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 26:29. (average 1.3:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Aktobe won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:12. (average 2:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Ordabasy ✔	29	21	5	3	59:21	38	68
5	Aktobe	29	13	7	9	44:37	7	46

Last Results with these Odds

Ordabasy - the odds 2.14 are the expected chance of winning is 43.16%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Aktobe
Kazakh Premier League
10.10.26	Yelimay Semey - Aktobe	1:3 ✺
18.09.26	Aktobe - Ulytau	2:2 ✺
12.09.26	Kaspiy Aktau - Aktobe	1:2 ✺
05.09.26	Aktobe - Zhenis	1:0 ✺
30.08.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Aktobe	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WTWWL
- FC Ordabasy
Kazakh Premier League
11.10.26	Kaisar - Ordabasy	1:4 ✺
17.09.26	Atyrau - Ordabasy	0:3 ✺
12.09.26	Ordabasy - Astana	1:0 ✺
05.09.26	Okzhetpes - Ordabasy	2:1 ✺
29.08.26	Ordabasy - Kyzylzhar	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
03.05.26	Ordabasy - Aktobe	2:0
26.10.25	Aktobe - Ordabasy	2:2
01.03.25	Ordabasy - Aktobe	0:0
25.08.24	Ordabasy - Aktobe	1:1
18.05.24	Aktobe - Ordabasy	0:0
Kazakh Cup
08.05.24	Ordabasy - Aktobe	1:2 ET
Kazakh Premier League
16.09.23	Aktobe - Ordabasy	2:1

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