Match Info

Premier League - Round 23

Date: 23 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Centralnyj Stadion (Kostanay)


	Tobol Kostanay		Zhenis

	1	X	2
	1.82	3.15	3.70
	2.04	3.19	3.53	Watch
	1.95	3.10	3.45
	2.25	2.81	3.81
	1.95	3.15	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↓ (2.16)	3.08 ↑ (2.85)	3.59 ↓ (3.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tobol Kostanay
45.3%

Draw
29.4%

Zhenis
25.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.7%

32.4%

24.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

31.2%

23.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tobol Kostanay has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Zhenis has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tobol Kostanay than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zhenis than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Tobol Kostanay - Zhenis Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 9 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tobol won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Tobol will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Tobol won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:10. (average 0.9:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Tobol won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:4. (average 1.7:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Tobol	26	10	4	12	33:35	-2	34
8	Zhenis	26	8	8	10	26:32	-6	32

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tobol Kostanay
Kazakh Premier League
16.08.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Tobol Kostanay	0:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
13.08.26	Tobol Kostanay - Partizan	1:2 ✺
06.08.26	Partizan - Tobol Kostanay	3:0 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
02.08.26	Ordabasy - Tobol Kostanay	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
30.07.26	Tobol Kostanay - Panevėžys	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WLLLW
- FC Zhenis
Kazakh Cup
19.08.26	Zhenis - Kaisar	3:2 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
15.08.26	Zhenis - Zhetysu	4:1 ✺
02.08.26	Zhenis - Yelimay Semey	0:0 ✺
Kazakh Cup
29.07.26	Kaisar - Zhenis	3:1 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
26.07.26	Kaspiy Aktau - Zhenis	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
03.05.26	Zhenis - Tobol Kostanay	1:0
Kazakh Cup
29.08.25	Zhenis - Tobol Kostanay	1:1
Kazakh Premier League
29.06.25	Tobol Kostanay - Zhenis	2:2
Kazakh Cup
25.06.25	Tobol Kostanay - Zhenis	2:1
Kazakh Premier League
08.03.25	Zhenis - Tobol Kostanay	0:0
04.10.24	Zhenis - Tobol Kostanay	2:1
Kazakh League Cup
25.05.24	Zhenis - Tobol Kostanay	2:0

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