Match Info

ASIA: AFC Champions League - Round 5

Date: 25 November 2024, Monday

Location: Tahnoun Bin Mohamed Stadium (Al Ain)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA AFC 1, beIN Sports MENA AFC 1, beIN Sports MENA AFC 1, TOD
Australia	Paramount+
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
China	iQIYI, Migu, QQ Sports
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Hong-kong	HOY TV
India	FanCode, FanCode, Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel, RCTI+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	Astro Go, Sooka
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 1
Portugal	Canal 11
Romania	AntenaPLAY
Russia	Okko Sport
Slovenia	SportKlub 2
South-korea	Tving
Spain	LaLiga+
Sweden	TV4 Play
United-kingdom	Sport 24 International
Usa	Paramount+
Vietnam	FPT Play
World	Onefootball, Triller TV+


	Al Ain		Al-Ahli Jeddah

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3	3.8	2.05
	3	4	2.05	Watch
	3.16	3.91	2.09
	3.13	4.02	2.01	Watch
	3	3.9	1.95
	3.13	4.1	2.05	Watch
	3	4	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.06 ↓ (5.2)	3.96 ↓ (4.83)	2.04 ↑ (1.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Al Ain
30.5%

Draw
23.6%

Al-Ahli Jeddah
45.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.2%

19.6%

62.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.7%

19.1%

63.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Al Ain has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Al Ain's performance.

Al-Ahli Jeddah has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-16.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Al-Ahli Jeddah might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al Ain than the current prediction. (-12.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Al Ain that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al-Ahli Jeddah than the current prediction. (+17.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Al-Ahli Jeddah could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
26.7%	6.7%	66.7%

Al Ain - Al Ahli Jeddah Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Al Ain will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). Al-Ahli will win (votes: 8 - 61.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Al-Ahli: 35% – 88%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
17. Eisa K. (G) 11. Mohammed B. (C) 16. Hashemi K. 3. Kouadio K. 15. Erik 5. Park Yong-Woo 6. Nader Y. 72. Awad M. 20. Palacios M. 21. Rahimi S. 9. Laba K.	16. Mendy E. (G) 27. Majrashi A. 28. Demiral M. 3. Ibanez 31. Yaslam S. 79. Kessie F. 11. Alexsander 7. Mahrez R. 24. Veiga G. 10. Firmino R. (C) 9. Feras Al Brikan
Substitutes
8. Abbas M. 18. Al Baloushi K. 13. Barman A. 1. Bu Senda M. (G) 23. Butti K. 27. Gassama S. 35. Hassan S. (G) 10. Kaku 46. Komari D. 24. Salomoni F. 7. Segovia M. 70. Traore A.	15. Al Ammar A. 40. Al Asmari A. 26. Al Hamad F. 6. Al Hurayji B. 30. Al Johani Z. 8. Al Nabit S. 19. Al Rashidi F. 1. Al Sanbi A. (G) 39. Al Zubaidi Y. 5. Baker M. 45. Darisi A. 99. Toney I.
Coaches
Jardim L.	Jaissle M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
38', Majrashi A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
63', Rahimi S. 🟨,
65', Feras Al Brikan ↓, Toney I. ↑,
65', Alexsander ↓, Al Hurayji B. ↑,
65', Majrashi A. ↓, Al Johani Z. ↑,
70', 0 - 1, Toney I. ⚽, Mahrez R. (A),
74', 0 - 2, Toney I. ⚽, Mahrez R. (A),
75', Palacios M. ↓, Kaku ↑,
76', Awad M. ↓, Al Baloushi M. ↑,
77', Firmino R. ↓, Al Nabit S. ↑,
83', Rahimi S. ↓, Segovia M. ↑,
90+3', 1 - 2, Kaku ⚽,
90+6', Veiga G. ↓, Al Rashidi F. ↑,
90+7', Mendy E. 🟨,
90+8', Segovia M. 🟨,
90+9', Kessie F. 🟨,
90+9', Al Nabit S. 🟨,
90+10', Park Yong-Woo 🟨,
90+10', 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and an outsider (ranked 12 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

Al Ain is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Al-Ahli is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Al Ain could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Al Ain have a series of guest games.

Al-Ahli will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Al Ain won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 10:9 (average 2:1.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Al Ain won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6:6 (average 2:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Al Ain FC
UAE Football League
21.11.24	Al Urooba - Al Ain	2:4 ✺
AFC Champions League
05.11.24	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Al Ain	5:1 ✺
FIFA Intercontinental Cup
29.10.24	Al Ahly Cairo - Al Ain	3:0 ✺
UAE Football League
25.10.24	Dibba Al-Hisn - Al Ain	1:1 ✺
AFC Champions League
21.10.24	Al Ain - Al-Hilal	4:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 WLLTL
- Al-Ahli Jeddah
Saudi Professional League
22.11.24	Al-Feiha - Al-Ahli Jeddah	0:1 ✺
08.11.24	Al-Ahli Jeddah - Al Raed	2:0 ✺
AFC Champions League
04.11.24	Al-Ahli Jeddah - Al-Shorta	5:1 ✺
Saudi Professional League
31.10.24	Al-Ittihad Jeddah - Al-Ahli Jeddah	1:0 ✺
25.10.24	Al-Ahli Jeddah - Al Akhdoud	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 WWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Saudi Professional League
07.11.20	Al Ain - Al-Ahli Jeddah	3:4
AFC Champions League
11.04.17	Al Ain - Al-Ahli Jeddah	2:2
13.03.17	Al-Ahli Jeddah - Al Ain	2:2
05.04.16	Al-Ahli Jeddah - Al Ain	1:2
16.03.16	Al Ain - Al-Ahli Jeddah	1:0

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