Match Info

ASIA: AFC CHAMPIONS LEAGUE - ROUND 5

Date: 28 November 2023, Tuesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Paramount+
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	SportKlub
Croatia	SportKlub
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub


	Al Ain		Pakhtakor

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.7	3.4	2.45
	2.8	3.4	2.4	Watch
	2.98	3.44	2.42
	2.93	3.44	2.43
	2.62	3.3	2.3
	2.84	3.45	2.38	Watch
	2.55	3.25	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.77 ↑ (1.72)	3.38 ↓ (3.56)	2.43 ↓ (4.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Al Ain
33.7%

Draw
27.7%

Pakhtakor
38.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.8%

25.4%

21.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.6%

24.6%

21.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Al Ain has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-19.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Al Ain's form might have worsened.

Pakhtakor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Pakhtakor's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al Ain than the current prediction. (+20.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Al Ain, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pakhtakor than the current prediction. (-17.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Pakhtakor, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.3%	14.3%	21.4%

Al Ain - Pakhtakor Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Al Ain will win (votes: 9 - 64.3%). Pakhtakor will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Al Ain: 39.2% – 89.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bu Senda M. (G) 66. Saaed M. 40. Al Blooshi K. 4. Ali Shakir M. 42. Jonas Santos 27. Al Shamsi S. 8. Al Baloushi M. 70. Traore A. 10. Romero A. 90. Khalfan E. 11. Mohammed B. (C)	36. Pavlyuchenko P. (G) 77. Saitov D. 5. Khamraliev M. 88. Azmiddinov S. 34. Sayfiyev F. 28. Kholmatov D. 2. Askarov B. 27. Sabirkhodjaev S. 8. Turgunboev A. 10. Ceran D. (C) 20. Erkinov K.
Substitutes
30. Abbas H. 12. Al Mantheri S. (G) 13. Barman A. 16. Hashemi K. 44. Juma Hassan S. 99. Loulendo J. 6. Nader Y. 20. Palacios M. 22. Waleed F.	17. Khamdamov D. 11. Kholdorkhonov P. 35. Kuwatov S. (G) 40. Merk K. B. 12. Poyonov S. 18. Saidnurullayev S. 1. Shevchenko N. (G) 4. Tursunov D. 6. Urinboev M. 31. Usmonov M.
Coaches
Crespo H.	Shatskikh M.

Preview

Al Ain is Qualified for AFC Champions League (Play Offs )

Now both teams are in good shape.

Al Ain could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Al Ain won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-1.

Including matches at home between the teams Al Ain won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Al Ain FC
UAE Football League
26.11.23	Shabab Al-Ahli - Al Ain	0:3 ✺
AFC Champions League
07.11.23	Al-Feiha - Al Ain	2:3 ✺
UAE Football League
02.11.23	Al Wasl - Al Ain	3:1 ✺
28.10.23	Al Ain - Emirates Club	3:1 ✺
AFC Champions League
24.10.23	Al Ain - Al-Feiha	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WWLWW
- Pakhtakor Tashkent
Uzbek League
24.11.23	Surkhon Termez - Pakhtakor	1:2 ✺
AFC Champions League
07.11.23	Ahal - Pakhtakor	1:1 ✺
Uzbek League
03.11.23	Pakhtakor - Nasaf Qarshi	1:1 ✺
29.10.23	Buxoro - Pakhtakor	0:1 ✺
AFC Champions League
24.10.23	Pakhtakor - Ahal	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WTTWW

Latest Head to Head

AFC Champions League
19.09.23	Pakhtakor - Al Ain	0:3
07.04.15	Al Ain - Pakhtakor	1:1
18.03.15	Pakhtakor - Al Ain	0:1

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