Match Info

Super League - Round 11

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadion Surkhon (Termez)

Referee: Nasibullayev S. (Uzb)


	Surkhon Termez		Pakhtakor

	1	X	2
	4.45	3.6	1.65
	4.5	4	1.73
	4.36	3.72	1.7	Watch
	4.2	3.4	1.7
	4.48	3.64	1.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.4 ↓ (4.53)	3.67 ↓ (3.91)	1.71 ↑ (1.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Surkhon Termez
20.9%

Draw
25.1%

Pakhtakor
54%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.7%

23.9%

55.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.6%

22.6%

58.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Surkhon Termez has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Pakhtakor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Surkhon Termez than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pakhtakor than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Surkhon Termez - Pakhtakor Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
86. Merganov D. (G) 66. Shaydulov B. 3. Dzhumatov B. 6. Shamsiev B. 27. Musaxonov M. 17. Abdukhamidov S. 8. Sherbutaev K. 7. Tursunov D. 10. Abdullazhonov S. 14. Ashuboyev T. 19. Kodirov F.	12. Nazarov V. (G) 34. Nasrullaev S. 5. Khamraliev M. 55. Abdumazhidov M. 7. Alizhonov K. 50. Flamarion 23. Buriev A. 15. Erkinov K. 27. Sobirkhuzhaev S. 17. Khamdamov D. 19. Parzyszek P.
Substitutes
25. Boymurodov O. (G) 9. Chinedu S. 21. Dzebniauri T. 11. Friday R. 77. Karimov A. 4. Nematkhonov N. 15. Ramazonov D. 26. Shukurullaev B. 18. Uktamov B.	20. Abdullaev D. 3. Azmiddinov S. 77. Bozorov O. 9. Ibrokhimov I. 35. Kuvvatov S. (G) 10. Mozgovoy A. 21. Resan B. 78. Saitov D. 14. Turdimurodov R.
Coaches
Gafurov A.	Tadzhiev K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
24', Buriev A. 🟨,
42', 1 - 0, Abdullazhonov S. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
61', Khamdamov D. ↓, Resan B. ↑,
68', Kodirov F. ↓, Chinedu S. ↑,
72', Abdukhamidov S. ↓, Ramazonov D. ↑,
73', Sobirkhuzhaev S. ↓, Mozgovoy A. ↑,
73', Khamraliev M. 🟨,
80', Abdullazhonov S. ↓, Shukurullaev B. ↑,
80', Musaxonov M. ↓, Nematkhonov N. ↑,
83', 🟨,
84', 🟨,
90+1', 1 - 1, Azmiddinov S. ⚽,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 13 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Surkhon won 2.

Surkhon has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Pakhtakor is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In this match, Pakhtakor is the team to beat.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Surkhon won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 9:34. (average 0.6:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Surkhon won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 4:17. (average 0.6:2.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Pakhtakor	22	14	7	1	39:20	19	49
12	Termez Surkhon	22	7	5	10	19:28	-9	26

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Surkhon Termez
Uzbek League
28.04.26	Sogdiana Jizzakh - Surkhon Termez	5:2 ✺
22.04.26	Surkhon Termez - Mashal Mubarek	2:1 ✺
17.04.26	Surkhon Termez - Qizilqum	0:1 ✺
12.04.26	Navbahor Namangan - Surkhon Termez	2:0 ✺
08.04.26	AGMK - Surkhon Termez	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWLLT
- Pakhtakor Tashkent
Uzbek League
28.04.26	Pakhtakor - Nasaf Qarshi	2:2 ✺
22.04.26	Buxoro - Pakhtakor	0:1 ✺
18.04.26	Pakhtakor - Dinamo Samarqand	4:2 ✺
13.04.26	Pakhtakor - Mashal Mubarek	2:1 ✺
09.04.26	Neftchi Fargona - Pakhtakor	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Uzbek League
29.09.25	Pakhtakor - Surkhon Termez	1:0
03.05.25	Surkhon Termez - Pakhtakor	2:1
22.08.24	Pakhtakor - Surkhon Termez	0:1
04.03.24	Surkhon Termez - Pakhtakor	0:3
24.11.23	Surkhon Termez - Pakhtakor	1:2
29.05.23	Pakhtakor - Surkhon Termez	1:0
09.10.22	Surkhon Termez - Pakhtakor	1:1

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