Match Info

AFC Champions League - League phase - Round 2

Date: 29 September 2025, Monday

Location: Thani bin Jassim Stadium (Doha)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, Paramount+
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
China	iQIYI, Migu, ZhiBo8
Hong-kong	HOY TV, M Plus Live
India	FanCode, FanCode, Vision+
Iran	IRIB Varzesh
Japan	DAZN Japan
Macao	Macau Cable TV 35 Sports
North-macedonia	TDM Desporto
Russia	TV Start
South-korea	Coupang Play
Turkey	Spor Smart 2


	Al-Gharafa		Al-Shorta Baghdad

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.92	3.45	3.7	Watch
	1.92	3.66	4.07
	2.16	3.37	3.18	Watch
	1.92	3.63	3.97	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↑ (1.55)	3.53 ↓ (4.05)	3.73 ↓ (5.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Al-Gharafa
47.8%

Draw
26.8%

Al-Shorta Baghdad
25.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.6%

23.1%

16.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Al-Gharafa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Al-Gharafa's form might have worsened.

Al-Shorta Baghdad has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Al-Shorta Baghdad's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	10%	20%

Al Gharafa - Al Shorta Baghdad Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Al-Gharafa will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Al-Shorta will win (votes: 2 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Al-Gharafa: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Al-Gharafa (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Al-Shorta (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Al-Gharafa (1.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Al-Shorta (2.24) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Al-Gharafa (votes: 2 - 25%). Al-Shorta (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Lecomte C. (G) 18. Al Oui A. 20. Jang Hyun-Soo 42. Sano S. 23. Fadlalla S. 24. Gunnarsson A. 29. Diaz F. 10. Al Ganehi A. 13. Sassi F. 8. Brahimi Y. (C) 9. Joselu	1. Basil A. (G) 23. Sadoun M. 4. Younis M. 6. Ashabi M. 15. Yahia Alwan A. 8. Mendy D. 25. Qasim A. 11. Shakir B. 7. Al Mawas M. 9. Ali H. 10. Leonel Ateba
Substitutes
33. Abdulnasir C. 26. Al-Ali R. A. 19. Al Zarra J. 17. Boussafi R. 7. Coman F. 14. Djalo A. 5. Essam M. 99. Hamed J. 27. Holgate M. 21. Kahiout H. (G) 6. Traore D.	21. Abdulkadhim S. 26. Abdulkhaleq M. 16. Ahmad H. (G) 5. Amin R. 17. Farhan A. 28. Jabbar H. 22. Kareem M. (G) 14. Moumouni B. 12. Raed H. 31. Saleh A.
Coaches
Martins P.	Soliman M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)
49', 1 - 0, Joselu ⚽, Brahimi Y. (A),
54', 2 - 0, Sassi F. ⚽, Brahimi Y. (A),
69', Leonel Ateba ↓, Farhan A. ↑,
69', Qasim A. ↓, Moumouni B. ↑,
69', Sadoun M. ↓, Abdulkadhim S. ↑,
73', Al Ganehi A. ↓, Coman F. ↑,
83', Gunnarsson A. ↓, Holgate M. ↑,
83', Ashabi M. ↓, Amin R. ↑,
89', Jang Hyun-Soo ↓, Traore D. ↑,
90+2', Joselu 🟨,

Preview

Al-Gharafa has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Al-Gharafa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Al-Gharafa has had a series of away games.

In this match, Al-Gharafa is the team to beat.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Al-Gharafa SC
Qatar QSL
25.09.25	Al-Rayyan - Al-Gharafa	2:3 ✺
Qatar QSL Cup
22.09.25	Muaither - Al-Gharafa	5:2 ✺
Qatar QSL
20.09.25	Al-Shamal - Al-Gharafa	0:0 ✺
AFC Champions League
15.09.25	Al-Sharjah - Al-Gharafa	4:3 ✺
Qatar QSL
12.09.25	Al-Gharafa - Al-Sailiya	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WLTLW
- Al-Shorta Baghdad
Iraqi Premier League
25.09.25	Al-Shorta Baghdad - Newroz	3:2 ✺
21.09.25	Al-Shorta Baghdad - Duhok	2:0 ✺
AFC Champions League
15.09.25	Al-Shorta Baghdad - Al-Sadd	1:1 ✺
Iraqi Cup
12.07.25	Zakho - Al-Shorta Baghdad	1:0 penalties ✺
08.07.25	Al-Shorta Baghdad - Al-Talaba	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WWTLW

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