Match Info

QSL - Round 5

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Al Bayt Stadium (Al Khor)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 7
Qatar	Al Kass One, Shoof


	Al-Shamal		Al-Gharafa

	1	X	2
	2.82	3.7	2.15
	2.8	3.95	2.27
	2.50	3.65	2.49	Watch
	2.81	3.9	2.18	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.73 ↑ (2.22)	3.8 ↑ (3.73)	2.27 ↓ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Al-Shamal
34.2%

Draw
24.6%

Al-Gharafa
41.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.7%

24.8%

33.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.6%

23.7%

32.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Al-Shamal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Al-Shamal's form might have worsened.

Al-Gharafa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Al-Gharafa's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al-Shamal than the current prediction. (+9.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Al-Shamal, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al-Gharafa than the current prediction. (-9.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Al-Gharafa, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Al Shamal - Al Gharafa Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Al-Shamal (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
95. Seck B. (G) 70. Khoder M. 4. Termanini M. 24. Murillo J. 2. Awad M. 7. Mohamed O. 72. Tawfik A. 6. Ebrahimi O. 5. Sliti N. 17. Seyam T. 11. Bounedjah B. (C)	1. Khalifa A. B. (G) 18. Al Oui A. 20. Jang Hyun-Soo 24. Gunnarsson A. 23. Fadlalla S. 13. Sassi F. 29. Diaz F. 99. Hamed J. 9. Joselu 3. Muntari M. 8. Brahimi Y. (C)
Substitutes
14. Ali O. 18. Al Sulimane A. 30. Barry O. (G) 10. Belhanda Y. 8. Collado A. 3. El Hannach Y. 32. Majed I. 22. Musa M. 31. Osama A. (G) 9. Qaderi A.	26. Al-Ali R. A. 10. Al Ganehi A. 17. Boussafi R. 7. Coman F. 14. Djalo A. 5. Essam M. 27. Holgate M. 12. Ismaeil H. 21. Kahiout H. (G) 40. Lecomte C. (G) 42. Sano S. 6. Traore D.
Coaches
Prats D.	Martins P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
34', Brahimi Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Muntari M. ↓, Al Ganehi A. ↑,
57', Gunnarsson A. ↓, Djalo A. ↑,
57', Hamed J. ↓, Traore D. ↑,
65', Seyam T. ↓, Al Sulimane A. ↑,
65', Ebrahimi O. ↓, Collado A. ↑,
75', Mohamed O. ↓, El Hannach Y. ↑,
75', Khoder M. ↓, Ali O. ↑,
75', Bounedjah B. 🟨,
76', Jang Hyun-Soo 🟨,
84', Sliti N. ↓, Belhanda Y. ↑,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Al-Shamal won 2.

Al-Shamal is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Al-Gharafa's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Al-Gharafa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Al-Shamal has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Al-Shamal won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 14:24. (average 1.2:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Al-Shamal won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:9. (average 1.3:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Al-Shamal SC
Qatar QSL
13.09.25	Al-Shamal - Al-Arabi Doha	3:2 ✺
Qatar QSL Cup
03.09.25	Al-Shamal - Umm-Salal	1:3 ✺
Qatar QSL
30.08.25	Al-Sailiya - Al-Shamal	1:2 ✺
22.08.25	Al-Shamal - Al-Rayyan	4:2 ✺
14.08.25	Al-Shamal - Al-Ahli Doha	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 WLWWW
- Al-Gharafa SC
AFC Champions League
15.09.25	Al-Sharjah - Al-Gharafa	4:3 ✺
Qatar QSL
12.09.25	Al-Gharafa - Al-Sailiya	2:0 ✺
Qatar QSL Cup
01.09.25	Al-Gharafa - Al-Sadd	3:3 ✺
Qatar QSL
28.08.25	Al-Sadd - Al-Gharafa	2:0 ✺
22.08.25	Al-Gharafa - Al-Arabi Doha	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Qatar QSL
08.02.25	Al-Shamal - Al-Gharafa	1:2
13.09.24	Al-Gharafa - Al-Shamal	1:1
28.04.24	Al-Shamal - Al-Gharafa	1:0
09.12.23	Al-Gharafa - Al-Shamal	1:1
Qatar QSL Cup
19.11.23	Al-Gharafa - Al-Shamal	1:2
Qatar QSL
20.02.23	Al-Gharafa - Al-Shamal	3:2
Qatar QSL Cup
26.09.22	Al-Shamal - Al-Gharafa	0:0

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