Match Info

ASIA: AFC Champions League - Round 4

Date: 4 November 2024, Monday

Location: Kingdom Arena (Riyadh)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports Asian Cup 1, beIN Sports MENA AFC, beIN Sports MENA AFC, beIN Sports MENA AFC, TOD
Australia	Paramount+
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Moja TV, Sportklub 1, SportKlub
Brazil	Claro TV+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
China	iQIYI, Migu, QQ Sports
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Georgia	Silk Sport 3
Hong-kong	HOY TV
India	FanCode, FanCode, Vision+
Indonesia	RCTI+
Israel	Sport 3
Japan	DAZN Japan
Montenegro	SportKlub
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 3, ESPN Extra
North-central-america	ESPN 3 North
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO, SportKlub 1, SportKlub 2
Portugal	Canal 11
Romania	AntenaPLAY
Russia	Okko Sport
Slovenia	SportKlub 3
South-korea	Tving
Spain	LaLiga+
Sweden	TV4 Play
Turkey	Spor Smart 1
Ukraine	Sport 1
Usa	Paramount+
Vietnam	FPT Play
World	Disney+, Onefootball, Triller TV+


	Al-Hilal		Esteghlal

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.12	10	17.5
	1.11	8	21
	1.11	9.93	19.5
	1.1	9.52	18.2
	1.07	8	23
	1.11	9.2	26	Watch
	1.11	8	21
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.1 ↓ (1.3)	8.95 ↑ (5.37)	20.89 ↑ (9.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Al-Hilal
85%

Draw
10.5%

Esteghlal
4.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

72.2%

17.5%

10.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

79.6%

15.9%

9.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Al-Hilal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Al-Hilal's performance.

Esteghlal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Esteghlal might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al-Hilal than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Al-Hilal that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Esteghlal than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
94.1%	0%	5.9%

Al Hilal - Esteghlal Predictions

Users Predictions: Al-Hilal will win (15 of 16 users predict this - 93.75%).
Confidence interval (95%): 81.89% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
37. Bono (G) 20. Cancelo J. 3. Koulibaly K. 87. Tambakti H. 6. Lodi R. 16. Al Dawsari N. 22. Milinkovic-Savic S. 77. Malcom 99. Al Hamdan A. 29. Al Dawsari S. (C) 9. Mitrovic A.	1. Hosseini H. (G) 10. Rezaeian R. 15. Zamani A. 3. Fallah S. 4. Cheshmi R. (C) 18. Zakipour M. 22. Ndong D. 14. Niknafs Z. 77. Masharipov J. 21. Kakuta G. 80. Eslami M.
Substitutes
4. Al Dawsari K. 50. Al Ghamdi A. (G) 7. Al Ghannam K. 24. Al Harbi M. 15. Al Qahtani M. 17. Al Rubaie M. (G) 12. Al Shahrani Y. 88. Al Yami H. 28. Kanno M. 11. Marcos Leonardo 10. Neymar	19. Blanco G. 12. Khaledabadi M. (G) 20. Koushki A. 50. Nikpour A. (G) 23. Ramezani A. 88. Rezavand A. 66. Saadavi Z. 99. Sadeghi A.
Coaches
Jesus J.	Mosimane P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
10', Rezaeian R. ↓, Koushki A. ↑,
15', 1 - 0, Mitrovic A. ⚽, Al Dawsari N. (A),
33', 2 - 0, Mitrovic A. ⚽, Lodi R. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
57', Al Hamdan A. ↓, Neymar ↑,
57', Al Dawsari N. ↓, Kanno M. ↑,
62', Cheshmi R. 🟨,
69', Koushki A. ↓, Ramezani A. ↑,
74', 3 - 0, Mitrovic A. ⚽, Cancelo J. (A),
76', Zamani A. 🟨,
78', Mitrovic A. ↓, Marcos Leonardo ↑,
78', Lodi R. ↓, Al Harbi M. ↑,
82', 🟨,
83', Kakuta G. ↓, Sadeghi A. ↑,
83', Zamani A. ↓, Saadavi Z. ↑,
86', Neymar ↓, Al Qahtani M. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Al-Hilal won 2.

Al-Hilal in the last match got a series victories and it is an a fantastic form (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Esteghlal is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Al-Hilal could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Al-Hilal is indisputable favorite.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Al-Hilal won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 6:6 (average 0.9:0.9).

Including matches at home between the teams Al-Hilal won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2:3 (average 0.7:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Al-Hilal Riyadh
Saudi Professional League
01.11.24	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Al-Hilal	1:1 ✺
Saudi King Cup
29.10.24	Al-Taee - Al-Hilal	1:4 ✺
Saudi Professional League
26.10.24	Al-Hilal - Al-Taawoun	2:0 ✺
AFC Champions League
21.10.24	Al Ain - Al-Hilal	4:5 ✺
Saudi Professional League
18.10.24	Al-Hilal - Al-Feiha	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 TWWWW
- Esteghlal FC
Iran Pro League
31.10.24	Esteghlal - Tractor Sazi	0:2 ✺
26.10.24	Kheybar Khorramabad - Esteghlal	3:1 ✺
AFC Champions League
22.10.24	Esteghlal - Al-Nassr Riyadh	0:1 ✺
Iran Pro League
18.10.24	Esteghlal - Zob Ahan	0:3 ✺
05.10.24	Havadar - Esteghlal	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

AFC Champions League
13.09.21	Esteghlal - Al-Hilal	0:2
23.04.19	Al-Hilal - Esteghlal	1:0
08.04.19	Esteghlal - Al-Hilal	2:1
16.04.18	Al-Hilal - Esteghlal	0:1
20.02.18	Esteghlal - Al-Hilal	1:0
09.04.13	Esteghlal - Al-Hilal	0:1
03.04.13	Al-Hilal - Esteghlal	1:2

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