Match Info

Premier League - Round 18

Date: 16 February 2026, Monday

Location: Borg El Arab Stadium (Alexandria)

Where to Watch on TV:


Egypt	Kora Plus


	Al-Ittihad Alexandria		Smouha

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3	2.65	2.37
	3.1	2.62	2.52	Watch
	3.53	2.61	2.63
	3.22	2.58	2.69
	3.25	2.5	2.63
	3.35	2.68	2.52
	3.33	2.57	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.25 ↓ (3.44)	2.6 ↑ (2.56)	2.55 ↑ (2.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Al-Ittihad Alexandria
28.4%

Draw
35.5%

Smouha
36.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.8%

36%

37.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27%

36.3%

36.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Al-Ittihad Alexandria has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Smouha has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al-Ittihad Alexandria than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Smouha than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	37.5%	50%

Al Ittihad Alexandria - Smouha Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Al-Ittihad will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Smouha will win (votes: 4 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Smouha: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Smouha (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Smouha (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Smouha (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Genesh M. (G) 2. Abdelfattah K. 6. Shabana M. 5. Ibrahim M. 17. El Deeb K. (C) 23. Isaac S. 26. Dunga M. 90. Mabululu 11. Wahid Y. 10. Afsha 15. Liadi A.	28. Mayhoub A. (G) 21. Mostafa M. 2. Hafez H. 4. Gomaa M. 6. Amer A. (C) 7. Naguib A. 23. Amadi S. 35. Fawzi A. 10. El Ghandour K. 8. Fekri S. 20. Badji P.
Substitutes
22. Body 41. Canaria 18. Ebuka J. 25. Emad M. 9. Farid F. 27. Magdi A. 88. Mahmoud A. 34. Sherif M. 1. Soliman S. (G)	12. Afifi Y. 9. Ashraf H. 27. Balaha H. 30. Hassan A. 66. Mohamed K. 24. Ragab M. 15. Samadou A. 1. Soliman E. (G) 33. Yehia A.
Coaches
Mostafa T.	Abdelaziz A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
27', El Deeb K. 🟨,
38', Liadi A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Amer A. ↓, Afifi Y. ↑,
50', Badji P. 🟨,
66', Liadi A. ↓, Magdi A. ↑,
68', Fawzi A. ↓, Mohamed K. ↑,
68', Amadi S. ↓, Balaha H. ↑,
76', 1 - 0, Magdi A. ⚽, Dunga M. (A),
76', Magdi A. 🟨,
80', Fekri S. ↓, Ashraf H. ↑,
80', Badji P. ↓, Yehia A. ↑,
81', Mabululu ↓, Farid F. ↑,
82', Wahid Y. 🟨,
82', Wahid Y. ↓, Ebuka J. ↑,
86', Afsha ↓, Emad M. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Premier League (Relegation Group: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Al-Ittihad won 0.

Al-Ittihad has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Smouha is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Al-Ittihad may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Smouha could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Al-Ittihad won 6 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 25:25. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Al-Ittihad won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 12:15. (average 1.2:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Al Ittihad	5	3	1	1	6:3	3	10
16	Smouha	5	1	1	3	1:4	-3	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Al-Ittihad Alexandria
Egyptian Premier League
06.02.26	Tala`ea El-Gaish - Al-Ittihad Alexandria	0:1 ✺
30.01.26	Al-Ittihad Alexandria - Haras El-Hodood	2:0 ✺
21.01.26	Ceramica Cleopatra - Al-Ittihad Alexandria	3:1 ✺
Egyptian League Cup
17.01.26	Haras El-Hodood - Al-Ittihad Alexandria	0:0 ✺
06.01.26	Al-Ittihad Alexandria - ZED	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WWLTT
- Smouha SC
Egyptian Premier League
11.02.26	Zamalek - Smouha	1:0 ✺
04.02.26	Smouha - Pyramids	2:1 ✺
29.01.26	ENPPI - Smouha	1:2 ✺
21.01.26	Smouha - Pharco	2:0 ✺
Egyptian League Cup
11.01.26	Smouha - Haras El-Hodood	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Egyptian League Cup
20.12.25	Smouha - Al-Ittihad Alexandria	0:0
Egyptian Premier League
16.05.25	Smouha - Al-Ittihad Alexandria	0:0
04.03.25	Al-Ittihad Alexandria - Smouha	0:1
14.05.24	Al-Ittihad Alexandria - Smouha	0:2
Egyptian League Cup
24.01.24	Al-Ittihad Alexandria - Smouha	0:2
Egyptian Premier League
03.11.23	Smouha - Al-Ittihad Alexandria	0:1
14.04.23	Al-Ittihad Alexandria - Smouha	3:1

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