Match Info

QSL - Round 3

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium (Doha)

Referee: Al Shammari M. A. (Qat)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Al-Sadd		Al-Gharafa

	1	X	2
	1.46	4.60	4.75
	1.37	4.75	5.30
	1.52	5.30	5.03
	1.45	5.3	5.22	Watch
	1.50	5.15	4.75
	1.54	4.92	4.66	Watch
	1.48	4.80	4.70
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↑ (1.35)	4.97 ↓ (5.07)	4.92 ↓ (6.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.00

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Al-Sadd
62.6%

Draw
18.6%

Al-Gharafa
18.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.4%

18.2%

13.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.9%

17.1%

12.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Al-Sadd has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Al-Sadd's form might have worsened.

Al-Gharafa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Al-Gharafa's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al-Sadd than the current prediction. (+10.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Al-Sadd, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al-Gharafa than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Al-Gharafa, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Al Sadd - Al Gharafa Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 - Al-Gharafa (1.82) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Al-Gharafa (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Barsham M. (G) 2. Pedro Miguel 5. Salman T. 16. Khoukhi B. 6. Paulo Otavio 8. Guilherme 33. Claudinho 23. Ali H. 9. Roberto Firmino 30. Afif A. (C) 12. Abdurisag Y.	1. N'Diaye K. (G) 11. Surag A. 4. Sano S. 20. Jang Hyun-Soo 6. Traore D. 23. Fadlalla S. 29. Diaz F. 18. Al Oui A. 13. Sassi F. 8. Brahimi Y. (C) 9. Magri F.
Substitutes
31. Abdullla Y. (G) 10. Al Haydos H. 1. Al Sheeb S. (G) 13. Al Yazidi A. 18. Bakri A. 3. El Hannach Y. 17. Manai M. 14. Meshaal M. 26. Romagnoli A. 80. Soria A. 7. Waad M.	33. Abdulnasir C. 90. Aladin H. 7. Coman F. 5. Essam M. 49. Faragalla R. 34. Gamal M. (G) 31. Kone A. (G) 97. Mohamed A. 96. Ounas A. 19. Saaed Ahmed Y.
Coaches
Lucescu R.	Martins P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Abdurisag Y. ⚽, Roberto Firmino (A),
12', 2 - 0, Claudinho ⚽, Afif A. (A),
39', Traore D. ↓, Coman F. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
50', 3 - 0, Afif A. ⚽, Pedro Miguel (A),
59', Sano S. 🟨,
64', Abdurisag Y. ↓, Al Haydos H. ↑,
65', Ali H. ↓, Manai M. ↑,
67', Sassi F. 🟨,
76', Pedro Miguel ↓, El Hannach Y. ↑,
76', Guilherme ↓, Soria A. ↑,
78', Diaz F. 🟨,
82', 3 - 1, Brahimi Y. ⚽, Coman F. (A),
85', Afif A. ↓, Meshaal M. ↑,
87', Jang Hyun-Soo ↓, Aladin H. ↑,
90+3', 4 - 1, Roberto Firmino ⚽, Khoukhi B. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Al-Sadd won 3.

Al-Sadd has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Al-Gharafa is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Al-Sadd may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Al-Sadd is a strong favorite.

We predict that Al-Sadd will win today's game, with odds of 1.47.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Al-Sadd won 12 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 56:31. (average 2.8:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Al-Sadd won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 24:12. (average 2.7:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Al Sadd	5	4	0	1	21:10	11	12
10	Al Gharafa	5	1	1	3	6:11	-5	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Al-Sadd SC
Qatar Cup
01.09.26	Al-Sadd - Al-Gharafa	2:1 ✺
Qatar QSL
28.08.26	Qatar SC - Al-Sadd	2:6 ✺
22.08.26	Al-Sadd - Al-Ahli Doha	3:1 ✺
Club Friendly
06.08.26	Aris Limassol - Al-Sadd	1:1 ✺
30.07.26	Trabzonspor - Al-Sadd	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 WWWTW
- Al-Gharafa SC
Qatar Cup
01.09.26	Al-Sadd - Al-Gharafa	2:1 ✺
Qatar QSL
27.08.26	Al-Gharafa - Al-Shamal	1:3 ✺
21.08.26	Al-Gharafa - Al-Shahania	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
27.07.26	Al-Riyadh - Al-Gharafa	2:2 ✺
19.07.26	Šamorín - Al-Gharafa	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Qatar Cup
01.09.26	Al-Sadd - Al-Gharafa	2:1
Qatar Emir Cup
09.05.26	Al-Gharafa - Al-Sadd	4:1
Qatar QSL
31.01.26	Al-Gharafa - Al-Sadd	1:3
Qatar QSL Cup
01.09.25	Al-Gharafa - Al-Sadd	3:3
Qatar QSL
28.08.25	Al-Sadd - Al-Gharafa	2:0
Qatar Emir Cup
14.05.25	Al-Gharafa - Al-Sadd	3:2 penalties
Qatar QSL
27.02.25	Al-Gharafa - Al-Sadd	0:4

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