Match Info

Super Cup UAE / Qatar - Final

Date: 24 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium (Doha)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 3
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 3
North-central-america	ESPN 3 North


	Al-Sadd		Shabab Al-Ahli

	1	X	2
	2.22	3.45	2.82
	2.27	3.58	2.9
	5.86	3.48	1.62	Watch
	2.15	3.38	2.94
	2.12	3.4	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.92 ↑ (2.82)	3.46 ↑ (3.44)	2.64 ↑ (2.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Al-Sadd
33.8%

Draw
28.6%

Shabab Al-Ahli
37.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.4%

26.5%

41.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.3%

25.6%

42.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Al-Sadd has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Shabab Al-Ahli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al-Sadd than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shabab Al-Ahli than the current prediction. (+5%)

Al Sadd - Shabab Al Ahli Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Barsham M. (G) 20. Atal Y. 5. Salman T. 2. Pedro Miguel 6. Paulo Otavio 80. Soria A. 33. Claudinho 21. Giovani 9. Roberto Firmino 7. Afif A. (C) 19. Mujica R.	22. Al Meqebaali H. (G) 75. Mateus Henrique 4. Planic B. 13. Renan 31. Kauan Santos 6. Ezatolahi S. 88. Maksimovic N. 10. Cartabia F. (C) 57. Yuri Cesar 77. Guilherme 21. Adil S.
Substitutes
31. Abdullla Y. (G) 86. Al Abdulrahman S. 10. Al Haydos H. 23. Ali H. 1. Al Sheeb S. (G) 13. Al Yazidi A. 8. Asad A. 66. Bakri Al Ameen A. 4. Camara M. 3. El Hannach Y. 68. Mahmoud Z. 29. Saiss R.	99. Adyson 11. Al Ghassani Y. 18. Al Mansouri M. 26. Al Nuaimi E. 8. Alvarez G. 80. Breno 25. Gomes I. 15. Kaiky 19. Mateusao 16. Rikelme 23. Seifi M. 1. Waleed R.
Coaches
Mancini R.	Sousa P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
19', Kauan Santos 🟨,
30', 0 - 1, Yuri Cesar ⚽, Cartabia F. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Atal Y. ↓, El Hannach Y. ↑,
55', 1 - 1, Roberto Firmino (Penalty Awarded),
59', Kauan Santos ↓, Rikelme ↑,
70', Adil S. ↓, Mateusao ↑,
71', Ezatolahi S. ↓, Breno ↑,
71', Cartabia F. ↓, Al Mansouri M. ↑,
74', 2 - 1, Afif A. ⚽, Pedro Miguel (A),
78', 2 - 2, Al Mansouri M. ⚽, Yuri Cesar (A),
79', Yuri Cesar ↓, Al Ghassani Y. ↑,
83', Mujica R. ↓, Camara M. ↑,
84', Giovani ↓, Ali H. ↑,
90+4', Soria A. ↓, Al Haydos H. ↑,
90+6', 3 - 2, Roberto Firmino ⚽, Camara M. (A),
90+6', Roberto Firmino 🟨,

Preview

Al-Sadd is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Shabab Al-Ahli is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Al-Sadd may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Al-Sadd won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2.

Including home match between the teams, Al-Sadd won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Al-Sadd SC
Qatar QSL Cup
19.01.26	Al-Arabi Doha - Al-Sadd	5:0 ✺
Qatar QSL
16.01.26	Al-Sadd - Al-Ahli Doha	2:0 ✺
08.01.26	Qatar SC - Al-Sadd	2:3 ✺
29.12.25	Al-Shamal - Al-Sadd	0:3 ✺
AFC Champions League
23.12.25	Al-Sadd - Shabab Al-Ahli	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LWWWW
- Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai
UAE Football League
19.01.26	Shabab Al-Ahli - Dibba Al Fujairah	7:0 ✺
15.01.26	Shabab Al-Ahli - Ajman Club	3:1 ✺
11.01.26	Shabab Al-Ahli - Al Wasl	3:1 ✺
07.01.26	Al Bataeh - Shabab Al-Ahli	0:4 ✺
03.01.26	Al-Jazira - Shabab Al-Ahli	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

AFC Champions League
23.12.25	Al-Sadd - Shabab Al-Ahli	4:2

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