Match Info

AFC Champions League - League phase - Round 6

Date: 22 December 2025, Monday

Location: Al-Zawraa Stadium (Baghdad)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Australia	Paramount+
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Chile	Disney+
China	iQIYI, Migu, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	SportKlub 6
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Germany	Sportdigital1+
Hong-kong	HOY TV, M Plus Live
India	FanCode, FanCode, Vision+
Malaysia	Astro Arena Bola 2, Astro Go, Sooka
Mexico	Disney+
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 3
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Russia	TV Start
South-korea	Coupang Play
Turkey	Spor Smart 2
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	K+ Sport 2, K+, TV 360
World	Onefootball


	Al-Shorta Baghdad		Al-Ahli Jeddah

	1	X	2
				Watch
	4.8	4	1.62	Watch
	3.85	3.7	1.82	Watch
	3.78	3.68	1.89	Watch
	4	3.6	1.8
	4.31	3.9	1.77	Watch
	4.2	3.8	1.77
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.16 ↓ (4.95)	3.78 ↓ (4.21)	1.78 ↑ (1.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Al-Shorta Baghdad
22.5%

Draw
24.8%

Al-Ahli Jeddah
52.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19%

22.3%

58.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.3%

21.4%

61.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Al-Shorta Baghdad has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Al-Ahli Jeddah has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Al-Ahli Jeddah might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al-Shorta Baghdad than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al-Ahli Jeddah than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Al-Ahli Jeddah could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	11.1%	66.7%

Al Shorta Baghdad - Al Ahli Jeddah Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Al-Shorta will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Al-Ahli will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Al-Ahli: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Al-Ahli (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Al-Shorta (1.90) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Al-Shorta (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Al-Ahli (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Basil A. (C) 23. Sadoun M. 4. Younis M. 6. Ashabi M. 12. Raed H. 8. Mendy D. 25. Qasim A. 9. Ali H. 7. Al Mawas M. 17. Farhan A. 10. Leonel Ateba	1. Al Sanbi A. (G) 27. Majrashi A. (C) 28. Demiral M. 3. Ibanez 32. Dams M. 19. Al Rashidi F. 30. Al Johani Z. 6. Atangana V. 20. Matheus Goncalves 17. Toney I. 13. Galeno
Substitutes
21. Abdulkadhim S. 26. Abdulkhaleq M. 16. Ahmad H. (G) 19. Ahmed S. 28. Jabbar H. 22. Kareem M. (G) 29. Mohammed Dawood 14. Moumouni B. 31. Salih A. 11. Shakir B.	62. Abdo A. (G) 29. Abdulrahman M. 47. Abu Al Shamat S. 87. Al Attar R. 2. Al Hawsawi Z. 72. Al Jadany S. (G) 26. Al Zubaidi Y. 46. Hamidou R. 40. Mallah Z. 5. Sulaiman M.
Coaches
Soliman M.	Jaissle M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
30', 0 - 1, Ibanez ⚽, Toney I. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 4)
57', 0 - 2, Toney I. ⚽, Galeno (A),
65', Al Mawas M. ↓, Jabbar H. ↑,
66', Raed H. ↓, Shakir B. ↑,
71', Al Rashidi F. ↓, Abu Al Shamat S. ↑,
72', 0 - 3, Galeno ⚽, Abu Al Shamat S. (A),
78', Sadoun M. ↓, Mohammed Dawood ↑,
81', 0 - 4, Abu Al Shamat S. ⚽, Toney I. (A),
82', Galeno ↓, Al Hawsawi Z. ↑,
82', Majrashi A. ↓, Abdulrahman M. ↑,
86', 0 - 5, Al Johani Z. ⚽,
87', Demiral M. ↓, Sulaiman M. ↑,
89', Matheus Goncalves ↓, Al Zubaidi Y. ↑,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 11 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In recent matches, Al-Shorta has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Al-Ahli is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, Al-Ahli is seen as the favorite.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Al-Shorta Baghdad
AFC Champions League
25.11.25	Al-Hilal - Al-Shorta Baghdad	4:0 ✺
Iraqi Premier League
20.11.25	Al-Shorta Baghdad - Al-Karkh	3:0 ✺
AFC Champions League
03.11.25	Tractor Sazi - Al-Shorta Baghdad	1:0 ✺
Iraqi Premier League
29.10.25	Al-Shorta Baghdad - Al-Karma	1:0 ✺
24.10.25	Arbil - Al-Shorta Baghdad	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LWLWL
- Al-Ahli Jeddah
Saudi King Cup
28.11.25	Al-Ahli Jeddah - Al-Qadisiya	4:3 penalties ✺
AFC Champions League
24.11.25	Al-Ahli Jeddah - Al-Sharjah	0:1 ✺
Saudi Professional League
21.11.25	Al-Ahli Jeddah - Al-Qadisiya	2:1 ✺
08.11.25	Al-Ittihad Jeddah - Al-Ahli Jeddah	0:1 ✺
AFC Champions League
04.11.25	Al-Sadd - Al-Ahli Jeddah	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WLWWW

Upcoming Matches