Match Info

AFC Champions League 2 - Round 4

Date: 5 November 2025, Wednesday

Location: Al-Zawraa Stadium (Baghdad)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 3
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	Paramount+
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	SportKlub 1
India	FanCode, FanCode, Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
Russia	TV Start
Slovenia	SportKlub 3
Ukraine	Sport 2, Sport 3
World	Sport 2 Baltic


	Al-Zawraa		Istiklol Dushanbe

	1	X	2
				Watch
				Watch
	1.48	4.15	5.7
	1.51	4.18	5.8
	1.69	4.02	4.21	Watch
	1.49	4.18	6.09	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↓ (1.69)	4.13 ↑ (4.02)	5.45 ↑ (4.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Al-Zawraa
60.4%

Draw
22.5%

Istiklol Dushanbe
17.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.9%

23.1%

22%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57%

24%

21.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Al-Zawraa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Al-Zawraa's performance.

Istiklol Dushanbe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al-Zawraa than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Istiklol Dushanbe than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Al Zawraa - Istiklol Dushanbe Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Al-Zawraa (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Al-Zawraa (1.78) (votes: 5 - 83.3%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

Users Predictions: Al-Zawraa will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Al-Zawraa (votes: 6 - 85.7%). Istiklol (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Hachim J. (C) 14. Kadhim R. 8. Hashem A. 3. Nasib A. 11. Ismael D. 16. Nabeel K. 6. Kadhim H. F. 10. Abdulkareem H. 19. Qasim M. 21. Al Rashdan N. 49. Ibrahim	1. Stosic N. (C) 55. Safarov M. 33. Okoro J. 4. Chobanov M. 5. Kurbonov S. 11. Rakhimov M. 6. Juraboev A. 77. Dehghani R. 17. Pandzhshanbe E. 8. Haghnazari S. 9. Soirov R.
Substitutes
47. Abdulkareem H. 99. Bani Hani R. 20. Bitang C. 27. Fadhil Najafi S. M. 22. Hassan H. (G) 77. Hraiswahi R. 9. Humaidan M. 5. Jabbar M. 88. Lawend H. 25. Mahdi Al Saedi S. M. 26. Mahmood Shaheen A. S. 17. Mohammad M.	28. Gafurov M. 3. Islomov T. 66. Kamolov R. 99. Khasanov M. (G) 43. Komolafe P. 19. Nazarov A. 70. Sulaymonov S. 15. Suslov K. 95. Turkaj R.
Coaches
El-Nahhas E.	Cherevchenko I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Abdulkareem H. ⚽,
34', Kadhim H. F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
53', 2 - 0, Ibrahim (Pen),
56', Haghnazari S. ↓, Gafurov M. ↑,
56', Dehghani R. ↓, Komolafe P. ↑,
59', Gafurov M. 🟨,
64', 2 - 1, Juraboev A. (Pen),
67', Kadhim H. F. ↓, Bitang C. ↑,
68', Bitang C. 🟨,
78', Abdulkareem H. ↓, Mohammad M. ↑,
78', Qasim M. ↓, Bani Hani R. ↑,
79', Ismael D. ↓, Mahdi Al Saedi S. M. ↑,
82', Rakhimov M. ↓, Islomov T. ↑,
85', Safarov M. 🟨,
87', Soirov R. ↓, Kamolov R. ↑,
88', Ibrahim ↓, Jabbar M. ↑,

Preview

Al-Zawraa has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Istiklol is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Al-Zawraa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Istiklol has had a series of home games.

In this match, Al-Zawraa is a strong favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Al-Zawraa won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Al-Zawraa
Iraqi Premier League
31.10.25	Al Mosul - Al-Zawraa	1:3 ✺
27.10.25	Al-Qasim - Al-Zawraa	0:2 ✺
AFC Champions League 2
22.10.25	Istiklol Dushanbe - Al-Zawraa	2:1 ✺
Iraqi Premier League
05.10.25	Al-Zawraa - Al-Quwa Al-Jawiya	0:2 ✺
AFC Champions League 2
01.10.25	Al-Zawraa - Al-Nassr Riyadh	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWLLL
- Istiklol Dushanbe
Tajik League
28.10.25	Istiklol Dushanbe - Ravshan Kulob	6:2 ✺
AFC Champions League 2
22.10.25	Istiklol Dushanbe - Al-Zawraa	2:1 ✺
01.10.25	Istiklol Dushanbe - Goa	2:0 ✺
Tajik League
24.09.25	Istiklol Dushanbe - Barkchi Hisor	2:1 ✺
AFC Champions League 2
17.09.25	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Istiklol Dushanbe	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

AFC Champions League 2
22.10.25	Istiklol Dushanbe - Al-Zawraa	2:1

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