Match Info

Turkish Cup - Round 4

Date: 3 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: GAİN Park Stadyumu (Alanya)

Referee: Altay C. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Israel	Sport 2
Norway	VG+


	Alanyaspor		Galatasaray

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.75	1.91
	2.45	3.4	2.4
	3.73	3.73	1.86	Watch
	3.76	3.69	1.97
	24.97	11.03	1.07	Watch
	3.4	3.4	1.91
	3.63	3.8	1.89	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.48 ↑ (3.04)	4.69 ↑ (3.7)	1.86 ↓ (2.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alanyaspor
17%

Draw
23.6%

Galatasaray
59.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.5%

25%

44.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.3%

24.8%

44.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alanyaspor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alanyaspor's form might have worsened.

Galatasaray has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Galatasaray's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alanyaspor than the current prediction. (+13.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alanyaspor, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Galatasaray than the current prediction. (-14.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Galatasaray, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	16.7%	33.3%

Alanyaspor - Galatasaray Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Alanyaspor will win (votes: 12 - 50%). Galatasaray will win (votes: 8 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alanyaspor: 30% – 70%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Alanyaspor (votes: 4 - 50%). Galatasaray (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Alanyaspor (1.91) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

DNB - Alanyaspor (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

DC - Alanyaspor (1.53) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Alanyaspor (votes: 7 - 58.3%). Galatasaray (votes: 4 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 1 - 8.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
48. Paulo Victor (G) 20. Aksoy F. 5. Aliti F. 30. Bruno Viana 8. Keskin E. 17. Janvier N. 42. Makouta G. 27. Kaya I. 14. Hagi I. 7. Karaca E. (C) 10. Yalcin G.	19. Guvenc G. (G) 93. Boey S. 23. Ayhan K. (C) 4. Jakobs I. 17. Elmali E. 74. Nhaga R. 20. Gundogan I. 10. Sane L. 22. Asprilla Y. 21. Kutucu A. 53. Yilmaz B. A.
Substitutes
50. Akdag U. 25. Bulut B. 6. Celik I. 12. Elia M. 94. Hadergjonaj F. 16. Hwang Ui-Jo 99. Kara M. C. (G) 3. Lima N. 9. Mounie S. 2. Yavuz B.	8. Gabriel Sara 27. Guner C. 33. Gurpuz G. 64. Kahraman Y. 67. Karasu E. C. 68. Kocak F. 77. Lang N. 90. Singo W. 34. Torreira L. 60. Yilmaz A. (G)
Coaches
Pereira J.	Buruk O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
6', 0 - 1, Yilmaz B. A. (Penalty Awarded),
29', 0 - 2, Nhaga R. ⚽, Yilmaz B. A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Keskin E. ↓, Hadergjonaj F. ↑,
46', Yilmaz B. A. ↓, Lang N. ↑,
46', Aksoy F. ↓, Akdag U. ↑,
59', Karaca E. ↓, Hwang Ui-Jo ↑,
59', Yalcin G. ↓, Mounie S. ↑,
67', Jakobs I. ↓, Singo W. ↑,
74', Makouta G. ↓, Celik I. ↑,
77', Sane L. ↓, Guner C. ↑,
78', 1 - 2, Mounie S. ⚽, Celik I. (A),
90', Elmali E. ↓, Kahraman Y. ↑,
90', Asprilla Y. ↓, Gurpuz G. ↑,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Turkish Cup (Play Offs: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Turkish Cup (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alanyaspor won 0.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Alanyaspor may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Alanyaspor won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 23:38. (average 1.2:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Alanyaspor won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 13:21. (average 1.2:1.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Alanyaspor - the odds 3.04 are the expected chance of winning is 30.48%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alanyaspor
Turkish Super League
28.02.26	Galatasaray - Alanyaspor	3:1 ✺
21.02.26	Alanyaspor - İstanbul Başakşehir	1:2 ✺
14.02.26	Alanyaspor - Konyaspor	2:1 ✺
08.02.26	Beşiktaş - Alanyaspor	2:2 ✺
Turkish Cup
04.02.26	Boluspor - Alanyaspor	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 LLWTW
- Galatasaray
Turkish Super League
28.02.26	Galatasaray - Alanyaspor	3:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
25.02.26	Juventus - Galatasaray	3:2 ET ✺
Turkish Super League
21.02.26	Konyaspor - Galatasaray	2:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
17.02.26	Galatasaray - Juventus	5:2 ✺
Turkish Super League
13.02.26	Galatasaray - Eyüpspor	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Turkish Super League
28.02.26	Galatasaray - Alanyaspor	3:1
26.09.25	Alanyaspor - Galatasaray	0:1
09.03.25	Alanyaspor - Galatasaray	1:2
06.10.24	Galatasaray - Alanyaspor	1:0
15.04.24	Alanyaspor - Galatasaray	0:4
25.11.23	Galatasaray - Alanyaspor	4:0
18.04.23	Alanyaspor - Galatasaray	1:4

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