Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Promotion Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Ciudad Deortiva Jose Luis Companon (Vitoria-Gasteiz)


	Alavés B		Real Jaén

	1	X	2
	2.28	3.05	2.88
	2.24	3.14	3.12	Watch
	2.2	2.9	3
	2.24	3.75	2.81
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↑ (1.87)	3.21 ↓ (3.25)	2.95 ↓ (3.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alavés B
40.7%

Draw
28.4%

Real Jaén
30.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.5%

27.9%

23.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.1%

27%

22.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alavés B has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alavés B's form might have worsened.

Real Jaén has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Real Jaén's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alavés B than the current prediction. (+9.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alavés B, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Jaén than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Real Jaén, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Alavés B - Real Jaén Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
61', 0 - 1, Brene I. ⚽,
67', Garcia A. 🟥,
Extra Time (0 - 1)
110', 0 - 2, Moyano J. ⚽,

Preview

First leg result: 2-1.

Alavés B is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Jaén is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Alavés B has had a series of away games.

Recently, Jaén has had a series of home games.

In this match, Alavés B is the team to beat.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Alavés B won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Alaves B	5	4	0	1	12:6	6	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Alavés B
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
10.05.26	Real Jaén - Alavés B	1:2 ✺
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
03.05.26	Gernika - Alavés B	0:0 ✺
26.04.26	Tudelano - Alavés B	1:2 ✺
18.04.26	Alavés B - Ejea	3:0 ✺
12.04.26	Zaragoza B - Alavés B	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 WTWWW
- Real Jaén
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
10.05.26	Real Jaén - Alavés B	1:2 ✺
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
03.05.26	Real Jaén - Antoniano	1:1 ✺
26.04.26	UCAM Murcia - Real Jaén	1:2 ✺
19.04.26	Real Jaén - Puente Genil	2:1 ✺
12.04.26	Real Jaén - La Unión	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
10.05.26	Real Jaén - Alavés B	1:2

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