Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 4 - Round 33

Date: 26 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio de La Condomina (Murcia)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	WebDirecto


	UCAM Murcia		Real Jaén

	1	X	2
	1.92	3.2	3.6
	1.93	3.17	3.88
	1.92	3.24	3.9	Watch
	1.91	3	3.9
	1.87	3.16	4.02
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↑ (1.85)	3.15 ↓ (3.2)	3.86 ↓ (3.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

UCAM Murcia
47.6%

Draw
28.8%

Real Jaén
23.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49%

28.3%

22.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.4%

28.7%

23%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

UCAM Murcia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Real Jaén has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for UCAM Murcia than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Jaén than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

UCAM Murcia - Real Jaén Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 2)
70', 0 - 1, Gonzalez N. ⚽,
80', 1 - 1, Mizzian M. ⚽,
90+2', 1 - 2, Bernardo A. ⚽,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Segunda RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs and 7).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, UCAM Murcia is the team to beat.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, UCAM Murcia won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:1. (average 1.6:0.2).

Including home matches between the teams, UCAM Murcia won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0. (average 1:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UCAM Murcia CF
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
19.04.26	La Unión - UCAM Murcia	4:1 ✺
12.04.26	UCAM Murcia - Malaga B	4:0 ✺
05.04.26	Minera - UCAM Murcia	2:0 ✺
28.03.26	UCAM Murcia - Recreativo Huelva	2:0 ✺
22.03.26	Águilas - UCAM Murcia	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LWLWW
- Real Jaén
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
19.04.26	Real Jaén - Puente Genil	2:1 ✺
12.04.26	Real Jaén - La Unión	1:0 ✺
04.04.26	Malaga B - Real Jaén	2:1 ✺
28.03.26	Real Jaén - Xerez CD	2:0 ✺
21.03.26	Recreativo Huelva - Real Jaén	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
14.12.25	Real Jaén - UCAM Murcia	0:3
14.02.16	Real Jaén - UCAM Murcia	0:1
27.09.15	UCAM Murcia - Real Jaén	1:0
01.03.15	Real Jaén - UCAM Murcia	1:2
11.10.14	UCAM Murcia - Real Jaén	1:0

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