Match Info

J2 League - Round 6

Date: 13 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Denka Big Swan Stadium (Niigata)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Albirex Niigata		Montedio Yamagata

	1	X	2
	2.5	3	2.75	Watch
	2.35	3.10	2.70
	2.4	3.05	2.8	Watch
	2.48	3.45	2.93
	2.46	3.25	2.86	Watch
	2.4	3.25	2.8
	2.36	3.13	2.82	Watch
	2.43	3.15	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↑ (2.31)	3.17 ↓ (3.24)	2.81 ↓ (2.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Albirex Niigata
38.1%

Draw
29.1%

Montedio Yamagata
32.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.7%

28.4%

31.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.4%

27.2%

30.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Albirex Niigata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Montedio Yamagata has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Albirex Niigata than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montedio Yamagata than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	33.3%	33.3%

Albirex Niigata - Montedio Yamagata Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Albirex Niigata will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Montedio Yamagata will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
46. Baumann N. (G) 2. Geria J. 15. Hayakawa F. 77. Funaki K. 26. Sato M. 8. Shirai E. 70. Maeda R. 6. Kasai K. 14. Konagaya C. 17. Shimabuku K. 32. Kuwayama K.	34. Sato R. (G) 15. Kawai A. 38. Morioka R. 49. Sakamoto K. 5. Sugii H. 13. Nodake H. 7. Nakamura R. 8. Doi S. 10. Kida R. 9. Takahashi J. 27. Enomoto K.
Substitutes
22. Arai T. 5. Fitzgerald M. 19. Hoshi Y. 9. Iury Castilho 3. Kato T. 55. Moraes M. 7. Onishi Y. 71. Uchiyama S. (G) 18. Wakatsuki Y.	11. Disaro A. S. 16. Hasegawa K. (G) 25. Kokubu S. 2. Lee Dong-Hee 39. Mori K. 19. Okamoto K. 17. Terayama T. 18. Yokoyama R. 20. Yoshio Kaina
Coaches
Funakoshi Y.	Yokouchi A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', 1 - 0, Maeda R. ⚽, Kuwayama K. (A),
46', Enomoto K. ↓, Disaro A. S. ↑,
55', Disaro A. S. 🟨,
61', Kasai K. ↓, Wakatsuki Y. ↑,
62', Kawai A. ↓, Okamoto K. ↑,
67', Maeda R. ↓, Onishi Y. ↑,
67', Konagaya C. ↓, Kato T. ↑,
70', Doi S. ↓, Yokoyama R. ↑,
73', Kuwayama K. ↓, Iury Castilho ↑,
73', Hayakawa F. ↓, Hoshi Y. ↑,
84', Takahashi J. ↓, Mori K. ↑,
84', Kida R. ↓, Yoshio Kaina ↑,
84', Nodake H. ↓, Terayama T. ↑,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 10 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Albirex Niigata won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Albirex Niigata won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 21:16. (average 1.6:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Albirex Niigata won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:10. (average 1.6:1.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Albirex Niigata	9	6	1	2	13:13	0	19
10	Montedio Yamagata	9	4	0	5	11:8	3	12

Last Results with these Odds

Montedio Yamagata - the odds 2.89 are the expected chance of winning is 31.86%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Albirex Niigata
Japan J2 League
06.09.26	Yokohama FC - Albirex Niigata	5:0 ✺
Japan J League Cup
02.09.26	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Albirex Niigata	1:2 ✺
Japan J2 League
29.08.26	Iwaki - Albirex Niigata	2:3 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
26.08.26	Albirex Niigata - Kagoshima United	0:4 ✺
Japan J2 League
22.08.26	Albirex Niigata - Fujieda MYFC	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 LWWLW
- Montedio Yamagata
Japan J League Cup
09.09.26	Tochigi - Montedio Yamagata	0:1 ✺
Japan J2 League
05.09.26	Montedio Yamagata - Ventforet Kofu	1:2 ✺
29.08.26	Imabari - Montedio Yamagata	0:3 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
26.08.26	Montedio Yamagata - Fujieda MYFC	3:5 AET ✺
Japan J2 League
22.08.26	Montedio Yamagata - Yokohama FC	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
25.07.26	Albirex Niigata - Montedio Yamagata	3:4
Japan J2 League
01.10.22	Montedio Yamagata - Albirex Niigata	1:1
29.05.22	Albirex Niigata - Montedio Yamagata	3:0
11.09.21	Albirex Niigata - Montedio Yamagata	1:2
11.04.21	Montedio Yamagata - Albirex Niigata	0:2
04.11.20	Montedio Yamagata - Albirex Niigata	1:2
19.07.20	Albirex Niigata - Montedio Yamagata	1:1

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