Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 11 - Round 17

Date: 10 January 2026, Saturday


	Alcúdia		Mercadal

	1	X	2
	2.52	2.98	2.68
	2.6	3.09	2.64	Watch
	2.5	2.9	2.63
	2.51	2.97	2.65
	2.5	3.25	2.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.53 ↑ (2.22)	3.04 ↑ (2.98)	2.63 ↓ (3.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alcúdia
35.8%

Draw
29.8%

Mercadal
34.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.8%

30.3%

28.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.8%

28.9%

27.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alcúdia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Mercadal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mercadal's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alcúdia than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alcúdia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mercadal than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Mercadal, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Alcúdia - Mercadal Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
70', 🟥,
73', 0 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 11 and 6).

In recent matches, Alcúdia has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Mercadal is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Alcúdia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Alcúdia could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Alcúdia won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:1. (average 0.3:0.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Alcúdia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Alcudia	5	2	0	3	10:11	-1	6
12	Mercadal	5	1	2	2	6:7	-1	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UE Alcúdia
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 11
20.12.25	Alcúdia - Felanitx	2:1 ✺
17.12.25	Binissalem - Alcúdia	1:0 ✺
14.12.25	Peña Deportiva - Alcúdia	5:1 ✺
06.12.25	Alcúdia - Portmany	0:0 ✺
22.11.25	Rotlet Molinar - Alcúdia	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WLLTW
- CE Mercadal
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 11
04.01.26	Mercadal - Mallorca B	0:2 ✺
20.12.25	Platges de Calvià - Mercadal	4:1 ✺
14.12.25	Mercadal - Formentera	0:1 ✺
07.12.25	Inter Ibiza - Mercadal	0:2 ✺
23.11.25	Mercadal - Llosetense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 LLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 11
25.01.25	Alcúdia - Mercadal	0:1
21.04.24	Alcúdia - Mercadal	1:0
02.12.23	Mercadal - Alcúdia	0:0

Alcúdia - Mercadal: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide