Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 5 - Round 17

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday


	Alcalá		Fuenlabrada

	1	X	2
	2.35	2.8	3.1
	2.25	2.9	2.95
	2.15	2.92	3.3
	2.32	2.92	3.2	Watch
	2.25	2.8	3.3
	2.17	2.88	3.43
	2.2	2.85	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↑ (2.2)	2.87 ↓ (3)	3.25 ↑ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alcalá
40.5%

Draw
31.6%

Fuenlabrada
27.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.9%

30%

29%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.5%

28.9%

27.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alcalá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Fuenlabrada has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alcalá than the current prediction. (+2%)

The ML Model estimate for Fuenlabrada aligns with the current prediction.

Alcalá - Fuenlabrada Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Alcalá (1.60) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Alcalá (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 10 and 11).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Alcalá is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Alcalá won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 0:6. (average 0:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Alcalá won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 0:6. (average 0:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	RSD Alcala	5	2	0	3	10:10	0	6

Last Results with these Odds

Fuenlabrada - the odds 3.1 are the expected chance of winning is 29.05%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RSD Alcalá
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
20.12.25	Coria - Alcalá	1:1 ✺
14.12.25	Alcalá - Real Madrid C	1:0 ✺
07.12.25	Navalcarnero - Alcalá	3:1 ✺
30.11.25	Orihuela - Alcalá	0:1 ✺
23.11.25	Alcalá - Rayo Majadahonda	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 TWLWL
- CF Fuenlabrada
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
20.12.25	Fuenlabrada - Elche Ilicitano	1:1 ✺
13.12.25	Rayo Majadahonda - Fuenlabrada	1:0 ✺
07.12.25	Fuenlabrada - Quintanar del Rey	2:1 ✺
30.11.25	Fuenlabrada - Colonia Moscardó	3:0 ✺
23.11.25	Conquense - Fuenlabrada	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 TLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
20.08.23	Alcalá - Fuenlabrada	0:3
11.08.22	Alcalá - Fuenlabrada	0:1
07.08.19	Alcalá - Fuenlabrada	0:2

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