Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 5 - Round 19

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday


	Alcalá		San Sebastian Reyes

	1	X	2
	2.7	2.9	2.45
	2.68	2.92	2.52
	2.88	2.97	2.48	Watch
	2.8	2.8	2.5
	2.92	2.89	2.43
	2.9	3	2.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.81 ↓ (2.88)	2.91 ↑ (2.8)	2.47 ↑ (2.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alcalá
32.2%

Draw
31.1%

San Sebastian Reyes
36.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.2%

32.1%

36.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.4%

32.3%

36.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alcalá has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

The chances for San Sebastian Reyes have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alcalá than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Sebastian Reyes than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Alcalá - San Sebastian Reyes Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Garci ⚽,
24', 1 - 1, Marin D. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 12 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Segunda RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Alcalá won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 1:2).

Including home match between the teams, Alcalá won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	San Sebastian Reyes	5	3	1	1	7:3	4	10
10	RSD Alcala	5	2	0	3	10:10	0	6

Last Results with these Odds

San Sebastian Reyes - the odds 2.45 are the expected chance of winning is 36.69%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RSD Alcalá
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
11.01.26	Conquense - Alcalá	2:1 ✺
04.01.26	Alcalá - Fuenlabrada	0:0 ✺
20.12.25	Coria - Alcalá	1:1 ✺
14.12.25	Alcalá - Real Madrid C	1:0 ✺
07.12.25	Navalcarnero - Alcalá	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 LTTWL
- San Sebastian Reyes
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
11.01.26	San Sebastian Reyes - Rayo Majadahonda	1:1 ✺
04.01.26	Real Madrid C - San Sebastian Reyes	1:2 ✺
20.12.25	San Sebastian Reyes - Tenerife B	1:2 ✺
14.12.25	Quintanar del Rey - San Sebastian Reyes	0:2 ✺
07.12.25	San Sebastian Reyes - Intercity	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 TWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 5
06.09.25	San Sebastian Reyes - Alcalá	1:0
Club Friendly
05.01.25	Alcalá - San Sebastian Reyes	2:3

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