Match Info

Serie C - Group A - Round 3

Date: 6 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadio Ernesto Breda (Sesto San Giovanni)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 252


	Alcione		Lumezzane

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2	3.1	3.3	Watch
	2.05	3	3.7
	2.08	3.07	3.7
	1.25	4.70	16.19	Watch
	2.04	3.04	3.58	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↓ (2.02)	3.38 ↑ (3.08)	6.09 ↑ (3.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alcione
53.6%

Draw
29.8%

Lumezzane
16.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.9%

30.1%

24%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.3%

25.1%

28.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alcione has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alcione's performance.

Lumezzane has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lumezzane might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alcione than the current prediction. (-15.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alcione that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lumezzane than the current prediction. (+12.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lumezzane could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Alcione - Lumezzane Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Agazzi F. (G) 94. Bertolotti F. 25. Pirola F. 6. Ciappellano D. 73. Scuderi G. 70. Bright K. 33. Invernizzi A. 8. Muroni M. 10. Pitou J. 30. Zamparo L. 11. Morselli F.	50. Drago G. (G) 2. Deratti J. 6. Pogliano C. 17. De Marino D. 95. Motta M. 23. Moscati M. 4. Paghera F. 10. Malotti M. 19. Rolando M. 20. Caccavo L. 21. Iori M.
Substitutes
1. Cecchini F. (G) . Gallazzi F. 23. Galli G. 65. Giorgeschi S. 16. Lanzi J. . Lione M. 18. Lopes E. 31. Marconi M. 5. Miculi A. 67. Mocchi T. 21. Olivieri D. 7. Renault G. 29. Samele L.	43. Archetti N. 12. Battagliola L. (G) 30. Cantamessa S. 5. D'Agostino S. 77. Diodato S. 9. Donnarumma A. 7. Ferro M. 1. Filigheddu S. (G) 11. Ghillani A. 27. Napolitano G. 3. Pagliari M. 41. Scanzi M. 39. Serpa A. 76. Simoncelli F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Pirola F. ⚽,
29', De Marino D. 🟨,
37', Paghera F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
64', Iori M. ↓, Ghillani A. ↑,
64', Moscati M. ↓, Cantamessa S. ↑,
67', Zamparo L. ↓, Marconi M. ↑,
67', Bright K. ↓, Lopes E. ↑,
68', Deratti J. ↓, Diodato S. ↑,
76', Rolando M. ↓, Ferro M. ↑,
76', Caccavo L. ↓, Donnarumma A. ↑,
81', Pogliano C. 🟨,
84', Morselli F. ↓, Olivieri D. ↑,
89', Invernizzi A. ↓, Miculi A. ↑,

Preview

Alcione has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Lumezzane has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Lumezzane may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Alcione has had a series of away games.

Recently, Lumezzane has had a series of home games.

Alcione could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Alcione won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Alcione won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0. (average 1:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ASD Alcione
Italian Serie C Group A
29.08.25	Cittadella - Alcione	1:0 ✺
23.08.25	Alcione - Triestina	1:0 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
17.08.25	Pro Patria - Alcione	1:2 penalties ✺
Club Friendly
29.07.25	Monza - Alcione	2:0 ✺
25.07.25	Reggiana - Alcione	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LWWLL
- FC Lumezzane
Italian Serie C Group A
31.08.25	Lumezzane - Pergolettese	2:3 ✺
24.08.25	Vicenza Virtus - Lumezzane	5:0 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
16.08.25	Lumezzane - Inter U23	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Lumezzane - Mantova	1:1 ✺
03.08.25	Lumezzane - Pro Palazzolo	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
09.03.25	Lumezzane - Alcione	1:1
26.10.24	Alcione - Lumezzane	1:0
Italian Serie D - Group B
05.02.23	Alcione - Lumezzane	1:0
02.10.22	Lumezzane - Alcione	3:1

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