Match Info

Date: 26 November 2021, Friday


	Alcorcón		Lugo

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.2	3.4	Watch
	2.25	2.87	3.2
	2.25	3.1	3.4	Watch
	2.24	2.9	3.45
	2.32	3.06	3.7
	2.5	2.88	3
	2.27	3.14	3.44	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↓ (2.88)	3.02 ↓ (3.13)	3.37 ↑ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alcorcón
41%

Draw
31.1%

Lugo
27.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.2%

30.5%

36.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.1%

22.1%

50%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alcorcón has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alcorcón's performance.

Lugo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lugo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alcorcón than the current prediction. (-16.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alcorcón that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (+22.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lugo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Alcorcón - Lugo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Super game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 22 in the zone Relegation and 15).

Alcorcón has the most likely position - 22 (47.72%), has project points - 36, has currently - 8, has a good chance of relegated (83%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Lugo has the most likely position - 17 (8.52%), has project points - 50, has currently - 20, has a chance of relegated (26%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (5%), has a very small chance of promoted (2%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Alcorcón has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Lugo is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Alcorcón will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Alcorcón won 11 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 25-15.

Including matches at home between the teams Alcorcón won 5 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 11-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Alcorcón
Spanish LaLiga2
21.11.21	Tenerife - Alcorcón	1:0 ✺
13.11.21	Eibar - Alcorcón	2:1 ✺
07.11.21	Alcorcón - Amorebieta	2:2 ✺
04.11.21	Girona - Alcorcón	3:1 ✺
01.11.21	Alcorcón - Ibiza	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLTLL
- CD Lugo
Spanish LaLiga2
21.11.21	Lugo - Eibar	2:2 ✺
14.11.21	Amorebieta - Lugo	1:3 ✺
06.11.21	Lugo - Ponferradina	1:2 ✺
03.11.21	Mirandés - Lugo	3:2 ✺
30.10.21	Lugo - Sporting de Gijón	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 TWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
17.04.21	Lugo - Alcorcón	1:3
20.11.20	Alcorcón - Lugo	1:0
05.07.20	Alcorcón - Lugo	2:2
01.09.19	Lugo - Alcorcón	2:4
31.03.19	Alcorcón - Lugo	0:0
10.11.18	Lugo - Alcorcón	0:1
Spanish Copa del Rey
17.10.18	Lugo - Alcorcón	1:0

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