Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 38

Date: 24 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Campo Municipal de Urritxe (Amorebieta-Etxano)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	FEF TV, TVG 2


	Amorebieta		Lugo

	1	X	2
	3.7	3.3	1.83
	3.8	3.4	1.77
	4.6	4.2	1.6
	3.53	4.37	1.84
	4.35	4.3	1.6	Watch
	4.84	4.05	1.59
	4.6	4.2	1.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.2 ↓ (4.96)	3.97 ↑ (3.42)	1.69 ↑ (1.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Amorebieta
22%

Draw
23.3%

Lugo
54.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.5%

26.8%

54.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.8%

26.4%

53.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Amorebieta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

The chances for Lugo have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Amorebieta than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Amorebieta - Lugo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Montoya J. (G) 11. Hervias P. 22. Yuste A. 5. Amelibia J. (C) 4. Kortazar M. 3. Camacho S. 17. Munoz I. 16. Masllorens J. 12. Sola J. 8. Vicandi A. 21. Marin A.	1. Lavin M. (G) 2. Lizancos A. 23. Rodriguez J. 4. Ruiz E. (C) 3. Zoilo A. 8. Gonzalez Y. 14. Vidal D. 18. Gonzalez J. 24. Martinez R. 7. Hernandez R. 19. Afriyie J.
Substitutes
14. Ben Hamed N. 10. Berto 19. Bravo Fernandez M. 23. Calavera J. 13. Campos G. (G) 18. Coulibaly A. 36. Intxausti A. 1. Marino U. (G) 7. Selma D.	5. Bernardo 13. Cacharron P. (G) 21. Ceberio J. 32. Cidre X. 6. Nicholas N. 17. Ochoa M. 34. Padin H. 33. Pereira P. 29. Rubal P. 20. Sanchez M. 22. Vaquero

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, Marin A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', Sola J. ↓, Intxausti A. ↑,
59', Vicandi A. ↓, Coulibaly A. ↑,
59', Marin A. ↓, Selma D. ↑,
59', Gonzalez J. ↓, Ochoa M. ↑,
62', Gonzalez Y. ↓, Ceberio J. ↑,
74', Hervias P. ↓, Ben Hamed N. ↑,
87', 🟨,
88', 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 13).

Amorebieta is Relegated to

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, Lugo is considered a favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Amorebieta won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:4. (average 0.7:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Amorebieta won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Amorebieta
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
17.05.25	Ourense CF - Amorebieta	0:3 ✺
11.05.25	Amorebieta - Celta de Vigo B	4:3 ✺
03.05.25	Barakaldo - Amorebieta	2:0 ✺
26.04.25	Barcelona B - Amorebieta	0:2 ✺
20.04.25	Amorebieta - Zamora	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 30.7 WWLWL
- CD Lugo
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
17.05.25	Lugo - Zamora	2:0 ✺
10.05.25	Gimnástic de Tarragona - Lugo	2:2 ✺
04.05.25	Lugo - Barcelona B	0:4 ✺
26.04.25	Arenteiro - Lugo	2:1 ✺
19.04.25	Lugo - Real Sociedad B	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
01.09.24	Lugo - Amorebieta	0:0
Spanish LaLiga2
13.02.22	Lugo - Amorebieta	1:1
14.11.21	Amorebieta - Lugo	1:3

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