Match Info

SPAIN: LALIGA2 - ROUND 28

Date: 18 February 2023, Saturday

Location: Estadio Anxo Carro (Lugo)

Referee: De La Fuente Ramos O. (Esp)


	Lugo		Eibar

	1	X	2
	4.5	3	2	Watch
	4.2	2.95	1.93
	4.1	3	2.05
	4.45	3.15	2.03
	4.25	3.18	1.97	Watch
	4.2	3.05	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.28 ↑ (3.6)	3.06 ↑ (2.8)	2 ↓ (2.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugo
22%

Draw
30.8%

Eibar
47.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.1%

33.5%

40.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.5%

32.7%

41.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Eibar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Eibar's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Eibar than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Eibar, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	7.1%	78.6%

Lugo - Eibar Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Lugo will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). Eibar will win (votes: 11 - 78.6%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Eibar: 57.1% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 21 in the zone Relegation and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs)).

Lugo has the most likely position - 22 (35.2%), has project points - 37, has currently - 22, has a good chance of relegated (93%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Eibar has the most likely position - 5 (16.52%), has project points - 68, has currently - 47, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a good chance of prom. playoffs (57%), has a chance of promoted (25%), has a very small chance of win league (5%).

This event has small quality 27, small importance 30, small match rating 29. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Lugo has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Eibar is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Eibar is a favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Lugo won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 2-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Lugo won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Lugo
Spanish LaLiga2
11.02.23	Las Palmas - Lugo	3:0 ✺
05.02.23	Lugo - Ibiza	0:0 ✺
29.01.23	Albacete Balompié - Lugo	2:0 ✺
22.01.23	Lugo - Villarreal B	1:2 ✺
15.01.23	Mirandés - Lugo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LTLLL
- SD Eibar
Spanish LaLiga2
12.02.23	Eibar - Cartagena	0:3 ✺
04.02.23	Deportivo Alavés - Eibar	2:0 ✺
28.01.23	Eibar - Leganés	0:0 ✺
21.01.23	Ponferradina - Eibar	0:1 ✺
15.01.23	Eibar - Málaga	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
02.11.22	Eibar - Lugo	1:0
26.03.22	Eibar - Lugo	1:0
21.11.21	Lugo - Eibar	2:2
31.05.14	Eibar - Lugo	1:0
04.01.14	Lugo - Eibar	0:0

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