The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Alcorcón 30%
Draw 30.8%
Ponferradina 39.2%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
29.1%
30.9%
40%
Our Initial ML Estimation
21%
22.3%
55.5%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Alcorcón has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)
Ponferradina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alcorcón than the current prediction. (-9%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alcorcón that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponferradina than the current prediction. (+16.3%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ponferradina could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
19.4%
25.8%
54.8%
Alcorcón - Ponferradina Predictions
Users Predictions:
31 users predict this event. Alcorcón will win (votes: 6 - 19.4%). Ponferradina will win (votes: 17 - 54.8%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 25.8%). Confidence interval (95%) for Ponferradina: 37.3% – 72.3%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Preview
Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 22 in the zone Relegation and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs)).
Alcorcón has the most likely position - 22 (92.95%), has project points - 27, has currently - 13, has a very good chance of relegated (>99%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has not chance of win league.
Ponferradina has the most likely position - 5 (20.32%), has project points - 66, has currently - 47, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a good chance of prom. playoffs (57%), has a small chance of promoted (14%), has a very small chance of win league (1%).
This event has small quality26, small importance11, small match rating18. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)
Last 5 head-to-head matches Alcorcón won 0.
Alcorcón is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).
Recent matches Ponferradina is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.
Last 15 head-to-head matches Alcorcón won 4 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 10-12.
Including matches at home between the teams Alcorcón won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 6-5.
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