Match Info

SPAIN: LALIGA2 - ROUND 40

Date: 14 May 2023, Sunday

Location: Estadio El Alcoraz (Huesca)

Referee: Fuentes Molina A. (Esp)


	Huesca		Ponferradina

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.3	4.33	Watch
	1.9	3.1	4
	1.94	3.4	3.95
	1.93	3.43	4.4
	1.89	3.24	4.55	Watch
	1.92	3.3	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↓ (2.03)	3.3 ↑ (3.11)	4.21 ↑ (4.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Huesca
49.1%

Draw
28.5%

Ponferradina
22.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.7%

30.4%

22.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.1%

29.4%

23.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Huesca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Ponferradina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Huesca than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponferradina than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.8%	18.2%	3%

Huesca - Ponferradina Predictions

Users Predictions: Huesca will win (26 of 33 users predict this - 78.79%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.84% – 92.74%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 17 and 20 in the zone Relegation).

Huesca has the most likely position - 17 (17.64%), project points - 52, currently - 48, a very small chance of relegated (<1%), not chance of prom. playoffs.

Ponferradina has the most likely position - 20 (86.36%), project points - 42, currently - 39, a very good chance of relegated (>99%), not chance of prom. playoffs.

This event has small quality 28, very small importance 3, small match rating 16. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Huesca won 1.

Recent matches Huesca is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Ponferradina is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Ponferradina could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Huesca is a favorite.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Huesca won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 10-15.

Including matches at home between the teams Huesca won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Huesca
Spanish LaLiga2
06.05.23	Leganés - Huesca	2:1 ✺
01.05.23	Málaga - Huesca	0:0 ✺
24.04.23	Huesca - Tenerife	1:1 ✺
16.04.23	FC Andorra - Huesca	1:0 ✺
09.04.23	Huesca - Burgos	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LTTLW
- SD Ponferradina
Spanish LaLiga2
07.05.23	Ponferradina - Málaga	2:0 ✺
30.04.23	Real Oviedo - Ponferradina	3:2 ✺
22.04.23	Ponferradina - FC Andorra	1:4 ✺
15.04.23	Burgos - Ponferradina	2:2 ✺
09.04.23	Ponferradina - Leganés	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
01.11.22	Ponferradina - Huesca	1:0
23.01.22	Huesca - Ponferradina	1:2
02.11.21	Ponferradina - Huesca	1:1
01.02.20	Ponferradina - Huesca	3:1
23.11.19	Huesca - Ponferradina	2:0
20.03.16	Ponferradina - Huesca	2:1
18.10.15	Huesca - Ponferradina	1:1

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