Match Info

ENGLAND: National League North - Round 28

Date: 25 January 2025, Saturday


	Alfreton Town		Needham Market

	1	X	2
	1.55	3.7	5
	1.55	3.7	5
	1.58	3.87	5.72
	1.59	3.82	5.71	Watch
	1.57	3.6	5.8
	1.54	3.85	5.76
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↓ (1.67)	3.76 ↑ (3.6)	5.5 ↑ (4.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alfreton Town
58.8%

Draw
24.5%

Needham Market
16.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.1%

25.1%

20.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.9%

23.9%

19.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alfreton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Needham Market has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alfreton Town than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Needham Market than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Alfreton Town - Needham Market Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 3)
59', 1 - 0, Salmon L. ⚽,
66', 2 - 0, Salmon L. ⚽,
78', 2 - 1, Smith T. ⚽,
90', 2 - 2, Cross L. ⚽,
90+2', 2 - 3, Lambe R. ⚽,

Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 11 and 24 in the zone Relegation).

Both teams are in bad shape now.

Alfreton could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Alfreton is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Alfreton won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5:2 (average 2.5:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Alfreton won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:2

Last Results with these Odds

Alfreton Town - the odds 1.67 are the expected chance of winning is 54.07%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alfreton Town
English National League North
18.01.25	Chester - Alfreton Town	2:0 ✺
14.01.25	Alfreton Town - Brackley Town	3:4 ✺
01.01.25	Alfreton Town - Curzon Ashton	0:1 ✺
26.12.24	Buxton - Alfreton Town	3:2 ✺
21.12.24	Alfreton Town - Radcliffe	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LLLLW
- Needham Market
English National League North
18.01.25	Needham Market - Radcliffe	1:1 ✺
01.01.25	Needham Market - Peterborough Sports	1:2 ✺
26.12.24	King`s Lynn Town - Needham Market	2:2 ✺
21.12.24	Needham Market - Darlington	0:1 ✺
14.12.24	Southport - Needham Market	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 TLTLT

Latest Head to Head

English FA Trophy
16.11.24	Alfreton Town - Needham Market	3:2
English National League North
26.08.24	Needham Market - Alfreton Town	0:2

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