Match Info

SPAIN: PRIMERA RFEF - GROUP 2 - ROUND 29

Date: 23 March 2024, Saturday


	Algeciras		Málaga

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.1	2.1
	3.5	2.75	2.1
	3.75	2.9	2.15
	3.9	2.91	2.27
	3.9	2.73	2.27
	3.75	3.04	2.07
	3.55	2.9	2.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.68 ↑ (2.63)	2.9 ↓ (3.25)	2.15 ↓ (2.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Algeciras
25.2%

Draw
31.9%

Málaga
43%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.7%

28.1%

37.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.2%

28.5%

36.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Algeciras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Algeciras's form might have worsened.

Málaga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Málaga's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Algeciras than the current prediction. (+10%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Algeciras, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Málaga than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Málaga, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Algeciras - Málaga Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Garcia L. (G) 2. Roldan R. 23. Rodriguez J. 25. Merchan D. 11. Sanchez T. 20. Garcia M. 4. Fernandez B. 6. Montes E. 7. Zequi 8. Turrillo I. (C) 19. Lopez J.	1. Herrero A. (G) 2. Gabilondo J. 4. Galilea E. 20. Monte N. 18. Sanchez D. 10. Larrubia D. 12. Molina M. 16. Rodriguez G. (C) 8. Juanpe 7. Ferreiro D. 19. Fernandez Jaen R.
Substitutes
9. Cueto J. 31. Dominiguez C. 10. Esteban Diego 26. Fernandez M. 1. Lavin M. (G) 17. Martin D. 21. Milosevic S. 28. Navarro I. 29. Pimienta 14. Santos S. 22. Sardinero A.	9. Aviles J. 26. Cordero A. 14. Garcia V. 21. Hernandez Garcia J. 5. Juande 13. Lopez C. (G) 22. Lorenzo D. 29. Merino I. 15. Moussa D. 25. Murillo D. 3. Puga C. 23. Sangalli L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Fernandez Jaen R. 🟨,
25', Sanchez T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
55', Ferreiro D. 🟨,
61', Juanpe ↓, Lorenzo D. ↑,
73', Sanchez D. ↓, Garcia V. ↑,
73', Larrubia D. ↓, Aviles J. ↑,
73', Roldan R. ↓, Santos S. ↑,
77', Garcia M. 🟨,
81', Ferreiro D. ↓, Cordero A. ↑,
84', Garcia M. ↓, Martin D. ↑,
89', Turrillo I. ↓, Dominiguez C. ↑,
89', Zequi ↓, Cueto J. ↑,
89', Lopez J. ↓, Sardinero A. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day's play. In the match war can see two teams from the top of the table (ranked 7 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs).

Algeciras is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Málaga in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Málaga will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Algeciras won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 1-11.

Including matches at home between the teams Algeciras won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 0-9.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Algeciras CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
16.03.24	Algeciras - Linares Deportivo	2:1 ✺
10.03.24	Ibiza - Algeciras	2:2 ✺
02.03.24	Algeciras - Granada B	1:1 ✺
25.02.24	Atlético Sanluqueño - Algeciras	0:0 ✺
17.02.24	Algeciras - Real Madrid Castilla	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.7 WTTTW
- Málaga CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
17.03.24	Málaga - Intercity	1:0 ✺
10.03.24	Atlético Sanluqueño - Málaga	0:0 ✺
03.03.24	Málaga - Ibiza	1:0 ✺
24.02.24	Alcoyano - Málaga	0:3 ✺
18.02.24	Málaga - Recreativo Huelva	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
17.12.23	Málaga - Algeciras	2:1
Club Friendly
12.08.23	Algeciras - Málaga	0:1
26.07.19	Algeciras - Málaga	0:0
16.07.16	Algeciras - Málaga	0:4
30.07.13	Algeciras - Málaga	0:4

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