Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 9

Date: 25 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Nuevo Mirador (Algeciras) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Garcia M. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Spain	16:30	DAZN Espana, Footballclub


	Algeciras		Real Madrid Castilla

	1	X	2
	2.30	3.10	2.70
	2.25	3.20	2.70
	2.50	3.15	2.48
	2.42	3.35	2.92
	2.58	3.44	2.56	Watch
	2.35	3.05	2.85
	2.43	3.27	2.85
	2.25	3.35	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.39 ↓ (2.52)	3.24 ↑ (3.24)	2.71 ↑ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.25

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Algeciras
38.2%

Draw
28.2%

Real Madrid Castilla
33.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

36%

28%

36%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35%

28.8%

37%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Algeciras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Real Madrid Castilla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Algeciras than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Algeciras - Real Madrid Castilla Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Moreno I. (G) 22. Adot Barandiaran P. A. 2. Carmona F. 4. Coch A. 3. Marquez J. 20. Alamo J. 8. Turrillo I. (C) 19. Iglesias D. Y. 7. Garcia J. 18. Martinez P. 9. Rubio R.	13. Navarro Jimenez J. (G) 2. Fortea J. 23. Fati L. 4. Rivas M. (C) 3. Aguado D. 6. Cestero Sancho J. 16. Martinez S. 7. Yanez D. 17. Ciria A. 11. Leiva A. 19. Carvajal A.
Substitutes
14. Almeida D. 17. Aviles J. 6. Castro O. 10. Garrido D. 5. Gomez A. 29. Herrero E. 13. Paradowski T. (G) 21. Ramon T. 23. Riley J. 15. Ruiz V. 11. Sanchez T.	9. Fettal R. 10. Fortuny P. 25. Lorente F. Q. (G) 5. Martinez J. 20. Martin R. 21. Naasei O. 39. Perez A. 14. Regueira I.
Coaches
Colunga A.	Lopez de Lerma J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', Leiva A. 🟨,
17', Carmona F. 🟨,
20', 1 - 0, Garcia J. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
48', Garcia J. 🟨,
59', Adot Barandiaran P. A. ↓, Sanchez T. ↑,
59', Martinez P. ↓, Ramon T. ↑,
60', Martinez S. ↓, Martin R. ↑,
63', 2 - 0, Ramon T. ⚽,
67', Yanez D. ↓, Fortuny P. ↑,
67', Carvajal A. ↓, Fettal R. ↑,
69', Iglesias D. Y. 🟨,
72', Iglesias D. Y. ↓, Aviles J. ↑,
79', Fettal R. 🟨,
80', Turrillo I. ↓, Castro O. ↑,
80', Garcia J. ↓, Riley J. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table squads battle for vital points to solidify their season (ranked 13th and 9th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Algeciras won 2.

Algeciras has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Performances by Real Madrid Castilla have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Algeciras could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 8 head-to-head meetings, Algeciras has recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 9:12 (averaging 1.1:1.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Algeciras against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with 5:6 goals (averaging 1.3:1.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Algeciras	9	4	1	4	13:13	0	13
12	Real Madrid B	9	3	3	3	11:11	0	12

Last Results with these Odds

Real Madrid Castilla - the odds 2.52 are the expected chance of winning is 36.04%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Algeciras CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
17.10.26	Algeciras - Hércules	2:0 ✺
11.10.26	CE Europa - Algeciras	2:1 ✺
04.10.26	Algeciras - Rayo Majadahonda	1:0 ✺
26.09.26	Juventud de Torremolinos - Algeciras	1:2 ✺
20.09.26	Algeciras - Águilas	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WLWWT
- Real Madrid Castilla
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
18.10.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Antequera	3:2 ✺
09.10.26	Ibiza - Real Madrid Castilla	1:1 ✺
02.10.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Atlético Madrid B	3:2 ✺
27.09.26	Real Madrid Castilla - Alcorcón	1:2 ✺
23.09.26	Sant Andreu - Real Madrid Castilla	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
31.01.25	Algeciras - Real Madrid Castilla	1:4
27.10.24	Real Madrid Castilla - Algeciras	1:1
17.02.24	Algeciras - Real Madrid Castilla	3:0
19.11.23	Real Madrid Castilla - Algeciras	1:2
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
27.05.23	Algeciras - Real Madrid Castilla	0:1
08.01.23	Real Madrid Castilla - Algeciras	2:1
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
21.05.22	Algeciras - Real Madrid Castilla	1:1

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