Match Info

SPAIN: Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 22

Date: 31 January 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Nuevo Mirador (Algeciras)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	FEF TV


	Algeciras		Real Madrid Castilla

	1	X	2
	2.88	2.88	2.45
	2.8	2.9	2.37
	2.85	2.85	2.42
	2.91	3.03	2.61
	2.85	3	2.48	Watch
	2.97	2.97	2.53
	2.85	2.85	2.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.87 ↑ (2.56)	2.93 ↑ (2.76)	2.47 ↓ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Algeciras
31.8%

Draw
31.2%

Real Madrid Castilla
37%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.8%

32.3%

32.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.1%

33.5%

31.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Algeciras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Real Madrid Castilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Algeciras than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Real Madrid Castilla, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	100%	0%

Algeciras - Real Madrid Castilla Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. It will Tie (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Garcia L. (G) 20. Adot Barandiaran P. A. 4. Spatz L. M. 22. Coch A. 3. Merchan D. 21. Celorio N. 19. Illesca M. 10. Esteban Diego 8. Turrillo I. 23. Gomez J. 7. Rodri	25. de Luis M. (G) 22. Jimenez D. 14. Ramon J. 15. Ribes K. 29. Rivas M. 23. Yusi 27. Fortuny P. 8. Moran M. A. 6. Andres C. 11. Alonso B. 7. Garcia G.
Substitutes
31. Dominiguez C. 15. Fernandez M. 5. Gaixas A. 9. Gonzaga Delage Cruzado L. 18. Hernandez Garcia J. 14. Javi Alonso 17. Leiva A. 27. Recagno D. 11. Sanchez T. 1. Venteo I. (G)	16. Antonio David 20. Campos A. 40. Diocou B. 13. Fran (G) 35. Ortega J. 4. Pujol E. 17. Ruiz D. 37. Valdepenas V. 36. Yanez D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45', Ramon J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 4)
46', Coch A. ↓, Gaixas A. ↑,
56', 0 - 1, Garcia G. ⚽,
63', Gomez J. ↓, Leiva A. ↑,
63', Rodri ↓, Gonzaga Delage Cruzado L. ↑,
70', 0 - 2, Garcia G. ⚽,
73', Merchan D. ↓, Sanchez T. ↑,
81', Turrillo I. ↓, Javi Alonso ↑,
82', 0 - 3, Garcia G. (Pen),
84', Moran M. A. ↓, Antonio David ↑,
84', Andres C. ↓, Campos A. ↑,
88', Alonso B. ↓, Diocou B. ↑,
90+2', 1 - 3, Gonzaga Delage Cruzado L. ⚽,
90+3', Ribes K. 🟨,
90+4', 🟨,
90+6', 1 - 4, ⚽,

Preview

Let's enjoy game between two mid-table teams (ranked 9 and 11).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Algeciras won 2.

Recent matches Algeciras is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Real Madrid Castilla is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Algeciras won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 8:8 (average 1.1:1.1).

Including matches at home between the teams Algeciras won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4:2 (average 1.3:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Algeciras CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
26.01.25	Sevilla B - Algeciras	1:0 ✺
19.01.25	Algeciras - Intercity	1:0 ✺
11.01.25	Atlético Madrid B - Algeciras	1:1 ✺
21.12.24	Algeciras - Antequera	1:1 ✺
15.12.24	Ibiza - Algeciras	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.2 LWTTW
- Real Madrid Castilla
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
26.01.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Villarreal B	2:2 ✺
17.01.25	Betis B - Real Madrid Castilla	1:3 ✺
11.01.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Alcoyano	2:0 ✺
22.12.24	Ceuta - Real Madrid Castilla	2:1 ✺
15.12.24	Real Madrid Castilla - Recreativo Huelva	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
27.10.24	Real Madrid Castilla - Algeciras	1:1
17.02.24	Algeciras - Real Madrid Castilla	3:0
19.11.23	Real Madrid Castilla - Algeciras	1:2
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
27.05.23	Algeciras - Real Madrid Castilla	0:1
08.01.23	Real Madrid Castilla - Algeciras	2:1
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
21.05.22	Algeciras - Real Madrid Castilla	1:1
14.11.21	Real Madrid Castilla - Algeciras	2:0

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