Match Info

Primera Division - Clausura - Round 21

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Cuscatlán (San Salvador)

Where to Watch on TV:


El-salvador	TCS GO, Tigo Sports


	Alianza San Miguel		Zacatecoluca

	1	X	2
	1.39	4.25	6.5
	1.39	4.56	7.26
	1.38	4.81	7.22	Watch
	1.4	4	6.5
	1.54	4.25	5.45	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↑ (1.42)	4.37 ↑ (4.2)	6.59 ↑ (6.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alianza San Miguel
64.9%

Draw
21.1%

Zacatecoluca
14%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64%

21.6%

14.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.5%

16%

19.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alianza San Miguel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Zacatecoluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza San Miguel than the current prediction. (-17.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alianza San Miguel that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Zacatecoluca than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Zacatecoluca could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Alianza San Miguel - Zacatecoluca Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
5', 1 - 0, Rodriguez O. ⚽,
19', 1 - 1, Barahona J. (Own goal),
43', 2 - 1, Gustavo Souza ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
52', 3 - 1, Duenas E. (Penalty Awarded),
61', 3 - 2, ⚽,
90+4', 4 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Division (Clausura ~ Play Offs: ) and 12).

Alianza is Qualified for Primera Division (Clausura ~ Play Offs )

Alianza has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Zacatecoluca's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Zacatecoluca may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Alianza is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Alianza won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 1.3:0.3).

Including home match between the teams, Alianza won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Alianza FC	12	4	6	2	19:17	2	18

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alianza San Miguel
El Salvador Copa Presidente
21.04.26	Isidro Metapán - Alianza San Miguel	1:1 ✺
El Salvador Primera Division
18.04.26	Municipal Limeño - Alianza San Miguel	0:0 ✺
15.04.26	Alianza San Miguel - Águila	0:2 ✺
11.04.26	Alianza San Miguel - CD FAS	0:2 ✺
El Salvador Copa Presidente
07.04.26	Alianza San Miguel - Isidro Metapán	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 TTLLW
- Zacatecoluca FC
El Salvador Copa Presidente
22.04.26	Inter FA - Zacatecoluca	2:1 ✺
El Salvador Primera Division
18.04.26	Zacatecoluca - Fuerte San Francisco	1:0 ✺
15.04.26	Zacatecoluca - Municipal Limeño	3:4 ✺
12.04.26	Águila - Zacatecoluca	1:0 ✺
El Salvador Copa Presidente
07.04.26	Zacatecoluca - Inter FA	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

El Salvador Primera Division
28.02.26	Zacatecoluca - Alianza San Miguel	0:2
09.11.25	Alianza San Miguel - Zacatecoluca	1:1
07.09.25	Zacatecoluca - Alianza San Miguel	0:1

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