The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Alianza San Miguel 32.8%
Draw 29.2%
Isidro Metapán 38.1%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
36.6%
29.4%
34.1%
Our Initial ML Estimation
39.2%
31.5%
31.8%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Alianza San Miguel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)
Isidro Metapán has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza San Miguel than the current prediction. (+6.4%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alianza San Miguel, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Isidro Metapán than the current prediction. (-6.3%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Isidro Metapán, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Alianza San Miguel - Isidro Metapán Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
43', 1 - 0, Menjivar L. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
Preview
An intriguing matchup between a mid-ranked team and a top contender (ranked 7th and 3rd in the Promotion - Primera Division (Apertura - Playoffs - Quarter - finals)).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alianza won 2.
Alianza is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 0 wins).
Isidro Metapán is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Isidro Metapán may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Alianza has recorded 5 wins, 7 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 17:20 (averaging 0.9:1 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Alianza against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, with 9:7 goals (averaging 1:0.8 per game).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
3
Metapan
17
9
3
5
23:18
5
30
7
Alianza FC
16
5
8
3
23:21
2
23
Last Results with these Odds
Alianza San Miguel - the odds 2.45 are the expected chance of winning is 36.57%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.
Isidro Metapán - the odds 2.63 are the expected chance of winning is 34.06%, but this team recently wins 46% of matches with these odds.