Match Info

Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 18

Date: 5 July 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Heraclio Tapia (Huánuco)


	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco		Alianza Atlético

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.2	2.75	Watch
	2.3	3.1	2.7
	2.65	3.2	2.65	Watch
	2.57	3.11	2.73
				Watch
	2.45	3.1	2.8
	2.67	3.29	2.76	Watch
	2.38	3.2	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.51 ↑ (1.73)	3.17 ↓ (3.6)	2.77 ↓ (4.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alianza Universidad de Huánuco
37.1%

Draw
29.3%

Alianza Atlético
33.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.1%

26%

19.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.8%

26.8%

19.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alianza Universidad de Huánuco has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-17%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alianza Universidad de Huánuco's form might have worsened.

Alianza Atlético has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alianza Atlético's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Universidad de Huánuco than the current prediction. (+18.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alianza Universidad de Huánuco, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza Atlético than the current prediction. (-14.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alianza Atlético, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	11.1%	66.7%

Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - Alianza Atlético Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Alianza Universidad will win (votes: 6 - 22.2%). Alianza Atlético will win (votes: 18 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alianza Atlético: 48.9% – 84.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Alianza Atlético (2.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Alianza Atlético (2.04) (votes: 7 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Alianza Atlético will win (15 of 18 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 26 Selected Experts predict this event. Alianza Atlético (votes: 23 - 88.5%). Tie (votes: 3 - 11.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ynamine P. (G) 28. Perleche A. 6. Ibarguen J. 3. Ampuero A. 15. Ramirez N. 29. Escobar J. 33. Otavio Gut 19. Mendieta J. 8. Lliuya M. 17. Mena Y. (C) 22. Campodonico R.	1. Melian D. (C) 4. Villegas J. C. 16. Fernandez S. 13. Benincasa H. 21. Perleche E. 2. Cossio A. 11. Larios Saavedra G. A. 23. Olmedo L. 22. Ysique F. 7. Castro R. 29. Graneros A.
Substitutes
27. Camara J. 31. Espinoza Gomes I. (G) 18. Fernandez A. 14. Guevara B. 26. Iraola G. 10. Oliva E. 90. Rodriguez C. 38. Sernaque J. 11. Vasquez Ortega E. O.	27. Diaz R. 24. Gordillo A. 30. Guzman P. 8. Illanes F. 15. Lupu H. 20. Perez J. 19. Perez M. 95. Prieto D. (G) 3. Vasquez C.
Coaches
Bermudez Tucto M.	Ameli G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
39', Otavio Gut 🟨,
40', Cossio A. 🟨,
44', Perleche A. ↓, Iraola G. ↑,
45+3', 1 - 0, Escobar J. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Larios Saavedra G. A. ↓, Diaz R. ↑,
46', Castro R. ↓, Lupu H. ↑,
63', Fernandez S. ↓, Perez J. ↑,
63', Cossio A. ↓, Vasquez C. ↑,
71', Escobar J. ↓, Sernaque J. ↑,
71', Campodonico R. ↓, Fernandez A. ↑,
71', Perleche E. ↓, Gordillo A. ↑,
76', Ramirez N. ↓, Vasquez Ortega E. O. ↑,
79', Ynamine P. 🟨,
85', 🟨,
85', 2 - 0, Mena Y. ⚽, Sernaque J. (A),

Preview

Alianza Universidad is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Alianza Atlético is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Alianza Universidad may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Alianza Universidad won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alianza Universidad de Huánuco
Peruvian Liga 1
29.06.25	Cusco - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	4:1 ✺
20.06.25	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - Cajamarca	1:2 ✺
15.06.25	Escuela Municipal Binacional - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	1:1 ✺
23.05.25	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - FBC Melgar	1:1 ✺
19.05.25	Alianza Lima - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LLTTL
- Alianza Atlético
Peruvian Liga 1
29.06.25	Alianza Atlético - Atlético Grau	2:1 ✺
22.06.25	Cienciano - Alianza Atlético	3:2 ✺
12.06.25	Alianza Atlético - Comerciantes Unidos	3:0 ✺
01.06.25	Los Chankas - Alianza Atlético	1:2 ✺
16.05.25	Alianza Atlético - Deportivo Garcilaso	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
19.08.21	Alianza Atlético - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	1:2

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