Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 38

Date: 4 May 2026, Monday

Location: UD Almería Stadium (Almería)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	New World Sport 4
Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSports 6
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	DAZN
Bulgaria	Max Sport 2
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 6, Cytavision Sports 6
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports, DSports 6
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports Start
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect, Vidio
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Sports 2
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	DirecTV Sports Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
Peru	DirecTV Sports
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Portugal	DAZN / App
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Sport 1x2
Singapore	beIN Sports 2
Slovakia	Nova Sport 3, Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 3
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sportkanalen
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Turkey	S Sport+
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports, DSports 6
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, Inter


	Almería		Mirandés

	1	X	2
	1.41	4.5	6.5	Watch
	1.46	4.33	5.75
	1.4	4.85	6.3	Watch
	1.44	5.16	6.86
	1.44	5	6.27	Watch
	1.4	4.6	6
	1.41	5.21	7.12	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↑ (1.36)	4.81 ↓ (5.15)	6.4 ↓ (7.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Almería
65.9%

Draw
19.5%

Mirandés
14.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.4%

18.3%

12.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.8%

17.4%

11.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Almería has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Mirandés has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Almería than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Almería, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mirandés than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.6%	7.7%	7.7%

Almería - Mirandés Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Almería (2.13) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Almería will win (11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.01% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Almería (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fernandez A. (G) 16. Luna M. 5. Rodrigo Ely 18. Bonini F. 3. Munoz A. 17. Lopy D. 29. Dzodic S. 12. Leo Baptistao (C) 11. Arribas S. 23. Embarba A. 24. de la Fuente M.	13. Juanpa (G) 2. Novoa Ramos H. 22. Gutierrez J. (C) 15. Cabello J. 3. Medrano F. 29. Houary A. 6. Helguera T. 18. Bauza R. 28. Hernandez J. 48. del Cura U. 30. El Jebari S.
Substitutes
20. Centelles A. 21. Chumi 8. Gui Guedes 6. Horta A. 31. Iribarne B. (G) 13. Martinez F. (G) 10. Melamed N. 4. Monte N. 7. Morcillo J. 2. Puigmal A. 19. Soko P. 9. Thalys	24. Cordoba I. 11. Malsa M. 42. Martinez Landa J. 8. Martin Luis A. 1. Nikic I. (G) 4. Pascual M. 17. Perez P. 20. Sia D. 27. Tamarit T.
Coaches
Rubi	Muneta A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
1', 1 - 0, Leo Baptistao ⚽, Luna M. (A),
3', 1 - 1, Medrano F. ⚽, El Jebari S. (A),
15', 2 - 1, Gutierrez J. (Own goal),
18', 2 - 2, El Jebari S. ⚽, Novoa Ramos H. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
52', Gutierrez J. 🟨,
58', 3 - 2, Medrano F. (Own goal),
62', Leo Baptistao 🟨,
63', Leo Baptistao ↓, Puigmal A. ↑,
65', El Jebari S. 🟨,
74', Embarba A. ↓, Morcillo J. ↑,
76', Novoa Ramos H. ↓, Tamarit T. ↑,
76', El Jebari S. ↓, Perez P. ↑,
82', Houary A. ↓, Martinez Landa J. ↑,
87', Arribas S. ↓, Horta A. ↑,
87', de la Fuente M. ↓, Thalys ↑,
89', Juanpa 🟨,
90+1', 4 - 2, Morcillo J. (Penalty Awarded),
90+2', Hernandez J. ↓, Malsa M. ↑,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 19 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Almería won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Almería may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Almería is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Almería: Baba I. (Health problems) Melamed N. (Injury)

There will not play in Mirandés: Fernandez C. (Yellow Cards) Lopez P. (Knee Injury) Mari A. (Injury) Postigo S. (Injury)

There are questionable in Almería: Luna M. (Injury)

There are questionable in Mirandés: Novoa Ramos H. (Injury)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Almería won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 23:14. (average 1.5:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Almería won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 12:4. (average 1.7:0.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Almeria	8	6	0	2	13:5	8	18

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Almería
Spanish LaLiga2
26.04.26	Granada - Almería	2:4 ✺
19.04.26	Almería - Málaga	3:2 ✺
12.04.26	Racing Santander - Almería	5:1 ✺
05.04.26	Almería - Leganés	2:1 ✺
02.04.26	Castellón - Almería	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWLWL
- CD Mirandés
Spanish LaLiga2
26.04.26	Mirandés - Leonesa	2:1 ✺
20.04.26	Deportivo A Coruña - Mirandés	3:1 ✺
12.04.26	Mirandés - Castellón	2:2 ✺
05.04.26	Zaragoza - Mirandés	1:2 ✺
31.03.26	Mirandés - Albacete Balompié	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.1 WLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
10.01.26	Mirandés - Almería	2:2
25.05.25	Mirandés - Almería	0:0
13.12.24	Almería - Mirandés	1:0
20.02.22	Almería - Mirandés	2:1
24.10.21	Mirandés - Almería	1:4
25.04.21	Mirandés - Almería	1:1
14.11.20	Almería - Mirandés	2:1

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