Match Info

LaLiga2 - Promotion - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 6 June 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Castalia (Castellón de la Plana)

Referee: Bestard Servera L. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Bolivia	ESPN 5
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5
Brazil	ESPN 4
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Croatia	Arena Sport 3
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	TV2 Play
Ecuador	ESPN 5
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 3
Greece	Nova Sports 1
Mexico	Sky Sport
Norway	Viaplay
Paraguay	ESPN 5
Peru	ESPN 5
Portugal	DAZN 1
Romania	Digi Sport 3, Prima Sport 5
Slovakia	Nova Sport 3, Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 2
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion, LaLiga TV Bar 2, Orange Futbol 2
Sweden	TV4 Fotboll
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 5


	Castellón		Almería

	1	X	2
	1.81	3.80	3.70	Watch
	1.80	3.60	3.80
	1.70	3.85	4.20	Watch
	1.88	3.90	4.18
	1.83	3.9	4.02	Watch
	1.80	3.50	3.80
	1.78	3.84	4.36	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↓ (1.82)	3.77 ↓ (3.96)	4.01 ↑ (3.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Castellón
51.9%

Draw
24.8%

Almería
23.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.9%

23.8%

24.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.3%

23.6%

24.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Castellón have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Almería has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Castellón than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Almería than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	18.7%	6.2%

Castellón - Almería Predictions

Users Predictions: Castellón will win (12 of 14 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.38% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Matthys R. (G) 15. Gerenabarrena B. 3. Brignani F. 5. Jimenez A. (C) 12. Alcazar L. 18. Santiago P. 25. Ronaldo 8. Barri 19. Jakobsen A. 21. Calatrava A. 9. Camara O.	1. Fernandez A. (G) 22. Chirino D. 5. Rodrigo Ely 18. Bonini F. 3. Munoz A. 29. Dzodic S. 17. Lopy D. 23. Embarba A. (C) 11. Arribas S. 7. Morcillo J. 24. de la Fuente M.
Substitutes
1. Abedzadeh A. (G) 11. Aurelio D. 29. De Nipoti T. 6. Doue M. 23. Garcia A. 17. Ruiz S. 14. Sanchez R. 37. Segura C. 4. Sienra A. 10. Suero I. 2. Tincho 55. Willman M.	14. Baba I. 20. Centelles A. 21. Chumi 8. Gui Guedes 12. Leo Baptistao 16. Luna M. 13. Martinez F. (G) 10. Melamed N. 4. Monte N. 2. Puigmal A. 19. Soko P. 9. Thalys
Coaches
Hernandez P.	Rubi

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', Morcillo J. 🟨,
24', Arribas S. 🟨,
32', de la Fuente M. 🟨,
37', Barri 🟨,
41', Jakobsen A. 🟨,
44', 1 - 0, Brignani F. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
60', Ronaldo ↓, Doue M. ↑,
62', de la Fuente M. ↓, Thalys ↑,
62', Morcillo J. ↓, Melamed N. ↑,
66', 1 - 1, Arribas S. ⚽, Embarba A. (A),
72', Santiago P. ↓, Sanchez R. ↑,
72', Jakobsen A. ↓, Suero I. ↑,
75', Embarba A. ↓, Puigmal A. ↑,
75', Chirino D. ↓, Chumi ↑,
83', Arribas S. ↓, Leo Baptistao ↑,
88', Alcazar L. ↓, Aurelio D. ↑,
88', Camara O. ↓, Tincho ↑,
90+2', Munoz A. 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

Castellón is Qualified for LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs Semi~finals)

Almería is Qualified for LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs Semi~finals)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Castellón won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, Castellón is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Castellón: Cipenga B. (International duty) Mabil A. (International duty) Mellot J. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Almería: Horta A. (Calf Injury)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Castellón won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:9. (average 2.2:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Castellón won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:3. (average 2.3:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Castellon	8	6	2	0	15:3	12	20
3	Almeria	8	6	0	2	13:5	8	18

Last Results with these Odds

Castellón - the odds 1.82 are the expected chance of winning is 51.88%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Castellón
Spanish LaLiga2
31.05.26	Castellón - Eibar	2:1 ✺
24.05.26	Huesca - Castellón	0:1 ✺
15.05.26	Castellón - Cádiz	1:1 ✺
09.05.26	Ceuta - Castellón	1:1 ✺
02.05.26	Castellón - Córdoba	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WWTTL
- UD Almería
Spanish LaLiga2
31.05.26	Almería - Valladolid	1:0 ✺
24.05.26	Sporting de Gijón - Almería	3:1 ✺
16.05.26	Almería - Las Palmas	1:2 ✺
09.05.26	Burgos - Almería	0:0 ✺
04.05.26	Almería - Mirandés	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
02.04.26	Castellón - Almería	2:0
26.10.25	Almería - Castellón	1:0
18.04.25	Castellón - Almería	4:1
16.09.24	Almería - Castellón	2:5
30.01.21	Almería - Castellón	3:1
28.10.20	Castellón - Almería	1:2

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