Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 9

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday

Location: UD Almería Stadium (Almería)

Referee: Romero G. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Sporty TV App
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, Vidio
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN SPORTS MAX
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Philippines	beIN SPORTS MAX
Romania	Prima Sport PPV 2
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+


	Almería		Leganés

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.80	5.50	Watch
	1.58	3.75	5.00
	1.57	3.90	4.80	Watch
	1.64	4.21	5.61
	1.63	4.12	5	Watch
	1.60	4.15	5.45
	1.66	4.18	5.00	Watch
	1.60	4.00	5.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↓ (1.68)	4.01 ↓ (4.05)	5.2 ↑ (4.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Almería
58.5%

Draw
23.4%

Leganés
18.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.4%

23.4%

20.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.9%

22.4%

19.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Almería has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Leganés has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Almería than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leganés than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Almería - Leganés Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Almería (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Almería will win (15 of 15 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

An intriguing matchup between an upper-bracket team and a mid-table rival (ranked 3rd in the Promotion - LaLiga2 (Promotion - Playoffs - Semi - finals) and 14th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Almería won 3.

Almería has enjoyed a winning run and is in top form (last 5 matches: 5 wins).

Leganés has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Bookmakers give the edge to Almería for this game.

Confirmed absences for Almería: Gui Guedes (Knee Injury) Rodrigo Ely (Ankle Injury).

Confirmed absences for Leganés: Pena R. (Injury).

Our forecast points to a victory for Almería in today's match, at odds of 1.62.

In the last 9 head-to-head meetings, Almería has recorded 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 16:13 (averaging 1.8:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Almería against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with 9:7 goals (averaging 1.8:1.4 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Almeria	8	6	0	2	13:5	8	18
15	Leganes	8	3	2	3	6:11	-5	11

Last Results with these Odds

Almería - the odds 1.68 are the expected chance of winning is 56.35%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Almería
Spanish LaLiga2
03.10.26	Almería - Burgos	2:1 ✺
27.09.26	Mallorca - Almería	0:1 ✺
20.09.26	Almería - Celta de Vigo B	2:0 ✺
12.09.26	Córdoba - Almería	0:2 ✺
06.09.26	Almería - Cádiz	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 WWWWW
- CD Leganés
Spanish LaLiga2
03.10.26	Cádiz - Leganés	4:0 ✺
28.09.26	Leganés - Castellón	0:2 ✺
20.09.26	Leganés - Granada	3:2 ✺
13.09.26	Tenerife - Leganés	2:0 ✺
04.09.26	Las Palmas - Leganés	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
05.04.26	Almería - Leganés	2:1
22.11.25	Leganés - Almería	0:3
Spanish Copa del Rey
15.01.25	Almería - Leganés	2:3
Spanish LaLiga2
29.05.22	Leganés - Almería	2:2
29.10.21	Almería - Leganés	1:0
27.03.21	Almería - Leganés	1:1
17.02.21	Leganés - Almería	2:1

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