Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 9

Date: 11 October 2025, Saturday

Location: UD Almería Stadium (Almería)

Referee: Bestard Servera L. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, Dsports 9
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports, DSports 9
Greece	Nova Sports 1
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Mexico	Sky Sport
North-central-america	DirecTV Sports Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
Peru	DirecTV Sports, DSports 9
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Portugal	DAZN 3, DAZN / App
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 2, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Sport 1x2
Singapore	beIN Sport 1
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion, Orange Futbol 2
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sportkanalen
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, Inter


	Almería		Zaragoza

	1	X	2
	1.66	3.75	4.75	Watch
	1.65	3.8	4.85	Watch
	1.74	3.72	5.18
	1.65	4.02	4.88	Watch
	1.66	3.84	4.89	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↑ (1.63)	3.83 ↓ (4.1)	4.91 ↑ (4.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Almería
56.3%

Draw
24.6%

Zaragoza
19.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.2%

22.8%

20%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.3%

22.4%

19.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Almería has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Zaragoza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Almería than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Zaragoza than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.2%	0%	14.8%

Almería - Zaragoza Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Zaragoza (2.12) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Almería (1.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.75 - Zaragoza (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Almería will win (23 of 27 users predict this - 85.19%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.79% – 98.59%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Almería will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Almería (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Zaragoza (votes: 3 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fernandez A. (G) 22. Chirino D. 4. Monte N. 18. Bonini F. 3. Munoz A. 8. Gui Guedes 14. Baba I. 23. Embarba A. 11. Arribas S. 10. Melamed N. 12. Leo Baptistao (C)	1. Andrada E. (G) 14. Francho (C) 4. Insua P. 5. Tachi 3. Tasende D. 8. Moya T. 6. Bare K. 10. Guti R. 23. Cuenca M. A. 9. Gomez D. 17. Moyano F.
Substitutes
20. Centelles A. 21. Chumi 15. Hernandez A. 17. Lopy D. 16. Luna M. 13. Martinez F. (G) 2. Puigmal A. 24. Robertone L. 9. Thalys	20. Aguirregabiria M. 12. Bakis S. 19. Kodro K. 22. Kosa S. 31. Pinilla H. 16. Radovanovic A. 13. Rodriguez A. (G) 33. Saidu Y. 29. Sans P. 2. Sebastian J. 7. Soberon M. 21. Valery
Coaches
Rubi	Jimenez M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Munoz A. 🟨,
22', Guti R. 🟨,
44', Moya T. 🟨,
2nd Half (4 - 2)
46', Gomez D. ↓, Kodro K. ↑,
46', Munoz A. ↓, Centelles A. ↑,
49', 1 - 0, Chirino D. ⚽, Embarba A. (A),
51', 2 - 0, Embarba A. ⚽,
62', Cuenca M. A. ↓, Sans P. ↑,
62', Moya T. ↓, Soberon M. ↑,
64', Leo Baptistao ↓, Thalys ↑,
64', Gui Guedes ↓, Lopy D. ↑,
70', Chirino D. ↓, Luna M. ↑,
70', Tasende D. ↓, Valery ↑,
74', Melamed N. ↓, Puigmal A. ↑,
78', Moyano F. ↓, Pinilla H. ↑,
78', 2 - 1, Kodro K. ⚽,
87', Centelles A. 🟨,
90', 3 - 1, Puigmal A. ⚽, Arribas S. (A),
90+2', 3 - 2, Soberon M. ⚽, Francho (A),
90+3', 4 - 2, Lopy D. ⚽, Baba I. (A),

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 9 and 21 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Almería won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Almería may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Almería is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Almería: Dzodic S. (International duty) Iribarne B. (International duty) Perovic M. (International duty) Soko P. (International duty)

There will not play in Zaragoza: Akouokou P. (Red Card) Bazdar S. (International duty) Carbonell L. (Knee Injury) Kosa S. (Knee Injury) Pomares C. (Injury) de la Fuente P. (Injury)

There are questionable in Almería: Lopy D. (Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Almería won 9 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 29:19. (average 1.8:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Almería won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 18:6. (average 2.3:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Almería
Spanish LaLiga2
04.10.25	Deportivo A Coruña - Almería	1:1 ✺
27.09.25	Las Palmas - Almería	0:1 ✺
20.09.25	Almería - Sporting de Gijón	2:1 ✺
13.09.25	Valladolid - Almería	3:1 ✺
07.09.25	Almería - Racing Santander	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 TWWLL
- Real Zaragoza
Spanish LaLiga2
05.10.25	Zaragoza - Córdoba	0:1 ✺
26.09.25	Mirandés - Zaragoza	0:1 ✺
21.09.25	Ceuta - Zaragoza	1:0 ✺
15.09.25	Zaragoza - Albacete Balompié	0:0 ✺
06.09.25	Zaragoza - Valladolid	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
15.03.25	Almería - Zaragoza	4:1
20.10.24	Zaragoza - Almería	1:2
04.03.22	Zaragoza - Almería	2:0
11.12.21	Almería - Zaragoza	3:0
11.04.21	Zaragoza - Almería	2:1
09.12.20	Almería - Zaragoza	1:0
20.06.20	Zaragoza - Almería	0:2

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