Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 5

Date: 13 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio José Zorrilla (Valladolid)

Referee: Arcediano D. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Dsports 9
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Ecuador	DSports 9
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free
Indonesia	beIN Connect, Vidio
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 7
Mexico	Sky Sport
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Peru	DSports 9
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Portugal	DAZN / App
Romania	Prima Sport PPV 1
Serbia	Arena Sport 1x2
Singapore	beIN Sports 3
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion, LaLiga TV Bar 2, Orange Futbol 2
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+


	Valladolid		Almería

	1	X	2
	2.01	3.4	3.5	Watch
	2.3	3.25	2.8
	2.05	3.3	3.4
	2.52	3.46	2.98
	4.85	1.43	6.31	Watch
	2.1	3.49	3.59	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.64 ↑ (2.35)	3.06 ↓ (3.48)	3.76 ↑ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Valladolid
39%

Draw
33.7%

Almería
27.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40%

27%

33%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.4%

26.7%

32.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Valladolid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Almería has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Almería might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Valladolid than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Almería than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Almería could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	26.7%	13.3%

Valladolid - Almería Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Valladolid will win (votes: 9 - 60%). Almería will win (votes: 2 - 13.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 26.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Valladolid: 35.2% – 84.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Valladolid (votes: 1 - 50%). Almería (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Almería (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Valladolid (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Almería (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Guilherme Fernandes (G) 14. Alejo I. 15. Tomeo P. 4. Torres D. 3. Bueno G. 24. Juric S. 8. Meseguer Cavas V. A. 11. Ndiaye A. 21. Ponceau J. 17. Biuk S. 10. Marcos Andre	1. Fernandez A. (G) 22. Chirino D. 4. Monte N. 18. Bonini F. 3. Munoz A. 8. Gui Guedes 29. Dzodic S. 23. Embarba A. 11. Arribas S. 10. Melamed N. 12. Leo Baptistao
Substitutes
1. Aceves A. (G) 12. Alani I. 34. Aranda J. L. 19. Arnuncio A. 27. Garriel I. 32. Koke 9. Latasa J. 16. Maroto M. 28. Moreno X. 22. Peter Federico 5. Sanchez J. 2. Trilli	20. Centelles A. 5. Clua S. 32. Fidel Cedillo Segura P. 15. Hernandez A. 6. Horta A. 31. Iribarne B. (G) 16. Luna M. 13. Martinez F. (G) 36. Perovic M. 2. Puigmal A. 24. Robertone L. 9. Thalys
Coaches
Almada G.	Rubi

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', Guilherme Fernandes 🟨,
13', Embarba A. (Pen),
14', Monte N. 🟨,
21', 1 - 0, Marcos Andre ⚽,
37', Gui Guedes 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Gui Guedes ↓, Horta A. ↑,
56', Alejo I. 🟨,
56', Leo Baptistao 🟨,
62', Ndiaye A. ↓, Peter Federico ↑,
64', Embarba A. ↓, Puigmal A. ↑,
71', Meseguer Cavas V. A. 🟨,
73', 1 - 1, Arribas S. (Pen),
73', Chirino D. ↓, Luna M. ↑,
74', Leo Baptistao ↓, Thalys ↑,
76', Marcos Andre ↓, Latasa J. ↑,
76', Alejo I. ↓, Trilli ↑,
77', Peter Federico 🟨,
79', Monte N. ↓, Hernandez A. ↑,
84', Ponceau J. ↓, Maroto M. ↑,
84', Meseguer Cavas V. A. ↓, Alani I. ↑,
90+1', Bonini F. 🟨,
90+2', 2 - 1, Latasa J. (Pen),
90+5', Dzodic S. 🟨,
90+7', Latasa J. 🟨,
90+9', 3 - 1, Maroto M. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Valladolid won 2.

Valladolid is showing really good form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Almería has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Almería may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Valladolid: Jaouab M. (Injury) Marcos Andre (Injury)

There will not play in Almería: Iribarne B. (Inactive) Lopy D. (Red Card) Monte N. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Almería: Chumi (Ankle Injury)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Valladolid won 6 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:11. (average 1.1:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Valladolid won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:5. (average 1.1:0.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Almería - the odds 2.85 are the expected chance of winning is 33.01%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Valladolid
Spanish LaLiga2
06.09.25	Zaragoza - Valladolid	1:1 ✺
30.08.25	Valladolid - Córdoba	0:0 ✺
22.08.25	Castellón - Valladolid	0:1 ✺
15.08.25	Valladolid - Ceuta	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
09.08.25	Burgos - Valladolid	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 TTWWT
- UD Almería
Spanish LaLiga2
07.09.25	Almería - Racing Santander	2:3 ✺
29.08.25	Real Sociedad B - Almería	2:2 ✺
24.08.25	Leonesa - Almería	0:1 ✺
18.08.25	Almería - Albacete Balompié	4:4 ✺
Club Friendly
10.08.25	Almería - Al-Nassr Riyadh	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17 LTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
28.05.23	Almería - Valladolid	0:0
05.09.22	Valladolid - Almería	1:0
Spanish LaLiga2
16.04.22	Valladolid - Almería	2:2
20.11.21	Almería - Valladolid	3:1
Club Friendly
25.07.18	Almería - Valladolid	0:1
Spanish LaLiga2
18.03.18	Valladolid - Almería	2:1
15.10.17	Almería - Valladolid	1:1

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