Match Info

ARGENTINA: Primera Nacional - Round 36

Date: 14 October 2024, Monday

Location: Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento (Isidro Casanova)

Referee: Comesana L. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports Play


	Almirante Brown		Atlético de Rafaela

	1	X	2
	6	3.5	1.65
	5.75	3.2	1.65
	6	3.3	1.63
	6.54	3.58	1.7
	5.61	3.44	1.68	Watch
	6	3.25	1.62
	6.09	3.28	1.63
	6	3.3	1.63
Avarage Now (Initially)	6 ↑ (2.44)	3.36 ↑ (2.86)	1.65 ↓ (3.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Almirante Brown
15.6%

Draw
27.8%

Atlético de Rafaela
56.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.3%

32.7%

29%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.6%

32.4%

28.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Almirante Brown has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-22.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Almirante Brown's form might have worsened.

Atlético de Rafaela has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+27.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Atlético de Rafaela's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Almirante Brown than the current prediction. (+23%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Almirante Brown, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético de Rafaela than the current prediction. (-27.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Atlético de Rafaela, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
26.7%	26.7%	46.7%

Almirante Brown - Atlético de Rafaela Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Almirante Brown will win (votes: 4 - 26.7%). Atlético Rafaela will win (votes: 7 - 46.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 26.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético Rafaela: 21.5% – 71.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Martinez R. (G) 4. Mino F. 2. Errecalde G. 6. Villar M. 3. Rodriguez F. 8. Diaz T. 5. Cenci B. 10. Garcia D. 11. Almada T. 7. Fernandez B. 9. Flores G.	1. Bilbao E. (G) 4. Fuyana J. 2. Navarro G. 6. Jappert K. 3. Quiroz F. 8. Galeano J. 5. Capurro J. 7. Aguirre J. 11. Pardo M. 9. Dichiara R. 10. Tomatis B.
Substitutes
14. Acosta N. 12. Ferreyra N. (G) 15. Gauna S. 20. Gonzalez R. 16. Iglesias L. 18. Piteo M. A. 17. Pittavino R. 19. Portillo S. 13. Quiroz L.	15. Aguero E. 13. Colombo R. 16. Fissore M. 12. Grinovero A. (G) 20. Luciani V. 19. Sandoval I. 17. Valdivia M. 18. Vidal P. 14. Wuattier E.
Coaches
Bazan Vera D.	Juarez I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
13', Villar M. 🟨,
18', 0 - 1, Jappert K. ⚽,
28', Jappert K. 🟨,
35', Rodriguez F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
48', 0 - 2, Tomatis B. ⚽,
52', Rodriguez F. ↓, Quiroz L. ↑,
57', Flores G. ↓, Gonzalez R. ↑,
57', Diaz T. ↓, Pittavino R. ↑,
57', Fernandez B. ↓, Portillo S. ↑,
65', Tomatis B. ↓, Colombo R. ↑,
68', Cenci B. ↓, Piteo M. A. ↑,
75', 1 - 2, Quiroz L. ⚽,
78', Quiroz F. ↓, Wuattier E. ↑,
78', Galeano J. ↓, Fissore M. ↑,
84', Aguirre J. ↓, Valdivia M. ↑,
85', Dichiara R. ↓, Luciani V. ↑,

Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 16 and 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Primera B (Apertura: )).

Two teams are playing changeable.

In this match Atlético Rafaela is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Almirante Brown won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:1 (average 1.5:0.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Almirante Brown won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Almirante Brown
Argentinian Primera Nacional
05.10.24	San Telmo - Almirante Brown	0:1 ✺
29.09.24	Almirante Brown - Chaco For Ever	3:0 ✺
23.09.24	Defensores de Belgrano - Almirante Brown	3:0 ✺
13.09.24	Almirante Brown - Club Almagro	1:2 ✺
08.09.24	Brown de Adrogué - Almirante Brown	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17 WWLLT
- Atlético de Rafaela
Argentinian Primera Nacional
06.10.24	Atlético de Rafaela - Atlanta Buenos Aires	2:0 ✺
29.09.24	Defensores Unidos - Atlético de Rafaela	0:0 ✺
20.09.24	Atlético de Rafaela - Deportivo Madryn	0:0 ✺
14.09.24	Atlético de Rafaela - San Martín de San Juan	0:0 ✺
08.09.24	San Telmo - Atlético de Rafaela	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 WTTTL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
25.05.24	Atlético de Rafaela - Almirante Brown	1:2
01.03.22	Almirante Brown - Atlético de Rafaela	1:0

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