Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 32

Date: 4 October 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Osvaldo Baletto (Dock Sud)


	San Telmo		Almirante Brown

	1	X	2
	2.7	2.7	2.82
	2.55	2.75	2.87
	2.65	2.68	2.85	Watch
	2.83	2.87	3.06
	2.78	2.72	2.98	Watch
	2.75	2.65	3
	2.71	3.03	2.83	Watch
	2.65	2.7	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.7 ↓ (2.86)	2.76 ↑ (2.7)	2.91 ↑ (2.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

San Telmo
34.4%

Draw
33.6%

Almirante Brown
32%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.7%

34.6%

32.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.9%

34.4%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Telmo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Almirante Brown has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Telmo than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Almirante Brown than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

San Telmo - Almirante Brown Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Enrico J. C. (G) 4. Diaz E. 3. Roncaglia F. 2. Pollacchi L. 6. Romero P. 8. Motroni J. 11. Gonzalez M. 7. Uriburu R. 5. Britez E. 10. Batallini M. 9. Molina N.	1. Galvan B. (G) 4. Abreliano M. 2. Levi M. 5. Jara L. 6. Cabral G. 3. Alegre Rojas G. 7. Flores G. 8. Villoldo T. 10. Pascual L. 11. Santiago M. 9. Zanotti M.
Substitutes
18. Baez F. 13. Dinocco R. 19. Gamarra R. 15. Iritier J. 17. Larthirigoyen I. 20. Nunez C. 14. Paredes G. 16. Porto J. 12. Rial J. (G)	19. Almada T. 14. Borja J. 12. Bottini A. (G) 15. Gauna S. 18. Lopez J. 17. Martinez E. 16. Moreyra G. 13. Velurtas P. 20. Zarate T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
10', 1 - 0, Britez E. ⚽, Gonzalez M. (A),
11', 2 - 0, Batallini M. ⚽, Molina N. (A),
36', Motroni J. 🟨,
39', 2 - 1, Zanotti M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Batallini M. ↓, Gamarra R. ↑,
46', Motroni J. ↓, Porto J. ↑,
52', 3 - 1, Porto J. ⚽, Molina N. (A),
62', 3 - 2, Jara L. ⚽,
63', Flores G. ↓, Lopez J. ↑,
63', Levi M. ↓, Moreyra G. ↑,
69', Gonzalez M. 🟨,
72', Gonzalez M. ↓, Dinocco R. ↑,
74', 🟨,
74', Abreliano M. 🟨,
82', Pascual L. ↓, Martinez E. ↑,
84', Zanotti M. ↓, Zarate T. ↑,
84', Jara L. ↓, Gauna S. ↑,
84', Uriburu R. ↓, Paredes G. ↑,
90+1', Molina N. ↓, Nunez C. ↑,

Preview

A struggling side attempts to pull off an upset against a high-flying opponent (ranked 14th and 6th in the Promotion - Primera Nacional Promotion - Playoffs).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, San Telmo won 0.

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

San Telmo may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 17 head-to-head meetings, San Telmo has recorded 2 wins, 6 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 8:14 (averaging 0.5:0.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for San Telmo against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 2 draws, and 5 losses, with 5:8 goals (averaging 0.6:1 per game).

Last Results with these Odds

San Telmo - the odds 2.86 are the expected chance of winning is 32.69%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Almirante Brown - the odds 2.86 are the expected chance of winning is 32.69%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA San Telmo
Argentinian Primera Nacional
27.09.26	Mitre - San Telmo	0:2 ✺
19.09.26	San Telmo - Estudiantes de Caseros	0:1 ✺
12.09.26	All Boys - San Telmo	0:1 ✺
05.09.26	San Telmo - Los Andes	0:0 ✺
30.08.26	Godoy Cruz - San Telmo	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.1 WLWTL
- Almirante Brown
Argentinian Primera Nacional
26.09.26	Almirante Brown - Acassuso	0:1 ✺
20.09.26	Chaco For Ever - Almirante Brown	1:0 ✺
13.09.26	Almirante Brown - Ferro Carril Oeste	0:0 ✺
06.09.26	Central Norte - Almirante Brown	0:0 ✺
30.08.26	Almirante Brown - Deportivo Madryn	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
16.05.26	Almirante Brown - San Telmo	0:0
08.09.25	Almirante Brown - San Telmo	1:0
03.05.25	San Telmo - Almirante Brown	0:1
05.10.24	San Telmo - Almirante Brown	0:1
20.05.24	Almirante Brown - San Telmo	0:0
10.06.23	San Telmo - Almirante Brown	3:1
05.02.23	Almirante Brown - San Telmo	1:0

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