Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 32

Date: 4 October 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Nuevo Monumental (Rafaela)


	Atlético de Rafaela		Atlanta Buenos Aires

	1	X	2
	2.1	2.85	3.75	Watch
	2.30	2.90	3.10
	2.2	2.82	3.4	Watch
	2.24	2.99	3.73
	2.21	2.94	3.68	Watch
	2.3	2.65	3.9
	2.27	3.17	3.43	Watch
	2.2	2.85	3.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↓ (2.64)	2.9 ↑ (2.68)	3.54 ↑ (3.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético de Rafaela
41.7%

Draw
32.1%

Atlanta Buenos Aires
26.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.4%

34.8%

29.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.3%

35.6%

29.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético de Rafaela has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Atlético de Rafaela's performance.

Atlanta Buenos Aires has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético de Rafaela than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Atlético de Rafaela that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlanta Buenos Aires than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Atlético de Rafaela - Atlanta Buenos Aires Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Atlético Rafaela (1.51) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético Rafaela (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bergia M. (G) 2. Solveyra A. 3. Moscoloni L. 4. Flores L. 6. Yegros U. 5. Capurro J. 8. Jourdan F. 11. Bonifacio J. 7. Rodriguez A. 9. Albertengo L. 10. Obando A.	1. Rago F. (G) 2. Ostachuk P. 3. Arguello D. 4. Garcia M. 6. Rojas T. 5. Rivero B. 8. Castro Ponce T. 11. Romero F. 7. Alvarez F. 9. Quintana A. 10. Rodriguez I.
Substitutes
16. Cavallaro J. 15. Fernandez M. 12. Martinez R. (G) 19. Moreno M. 17. Pardo M. 20. Protti I. 18. Quiroga M. 13. Ramos N. 14. Soloa F.	16. Bernardi C. 17. Caceres F. 13. Galeano L. 12. Lopez Kaleniuk L. (G) 14. Mendoza G. 20. Miranda G. 19. Morales A. 18. Puch J. 15. Sosa R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
1', Quintana A. 🟨,
25', 1 - 0, Garcia M. (Own goal),
41', 1 - 1, Alvarez F. ⚽, Quintana A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
52', Bonifacio J. 🟨,
54', Jourdan F. 🟨,
57', Solveyra A. 🟨,
61', Jourdan F. ↓, Moreno M. ↑,
61', Rodriguez A. ↓, Pardo M. ↑,
65', Arguello D. ↓, Sosa R. ↑,
65', Rodriguez I. ↓, Morales A. ↑,
71', 1 - 2, Rivero B. ⚽, Morales A. (A),
78', Moreno M. 🟨,
79', Flores L. ↓, Soloa F. ↑,
79', Moscoloni L. ↓, Cavallaro J. ↑,
79', Capurro J. ↓, Quiroga M. ↑,
81', Alvarez F. ↓, Galeano L. ↑,
81', Rivero B. ↓, Bernardi C. ↑,
81', 1 - 3, Galeano L. ⚽, Rojas T. (A),
88', Morales A. ↓, Mendoza G. ↑,
90', 2 - 3, Quiroga M. ⚽, Albertengo L. (A),

Preview

A competitive mid-table side looks to challenge an upper-table opponent (ranked 10th and 4th in the Promotion - Primera Nacional Promotion - Playoffs).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético Rafaela won 2.

Atlético Rafaela has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Atlanta is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Atlanta may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Atlético Rafaela has recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 3:4 (averaging 0.5:0.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Atlético Rafaela against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 3:0 goals (averaging 1.5:0 per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Atlético de Rafaela - the odds 2.64 are the expected chance of winning is 35.35%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Atlanta Buenos Aires - the odds 3.13 are the expected chance of winning is 29.82%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético de Rafaela
Argentinian Primera Nacional
27.09.26	Gimnasia y Tiro - Atlético de Rafaela	1:0 ✺
19.09.26	Atlético de Rafaela - San Martín de Tucumán	4:2 ✺
13.09.26	Gimnasia Jujuy - Atlético de Rafaela	2:1 ✺
06.09.26	Agropecuario Argentino - Atlético de Rafaela	2:0 ✺
29.08.26	Atlético de Rafaela - Tristán Suárez	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LWLLW
- Atlanta Buenos Aires
Argentinian Primera Nacional
27.09.26	Atlanta Buenos Aires - Agropecuario Argentino	1:0 ✺
21.09.26	Tristán Suárez - Atlanta Buenos Aires	0:0 ✺
12.09.26	Atlanta Buenos Aires - Güemes	2:0 ✺
05.09.26	Chacarita Juniors - Atlanta Buenos Aires	0:1 ✺
30.08.26	Atlanta Buenos Aires - San Martín de San Juan	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
16.05.26	Atlanta Buenos Aires - Atlético de Rafaela	2:0
06.10.24	Atlético de Rafaela - Atlanta Buenos Aires	2:0
19.05.24	Atlanta Buenos Aires - Atlético de Rafaela	2:0
25.06.23	Atlético de Rafaela - Atlanta Buenos Aires	1:0
20.02.23	Atlanta Buenos Aires - Atlético de Rafaela	0:0
22.08.22	Atlanta Buenos Aires - Atlético de Rafaela	0:0

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