Match Info

Kazakhstan Cup - 1/8-finals

Date: 30 April 2026, Thursday

Location: Vostok Stadium (Oskemen)

Referee: Tasybaev A. (Rus)


	Altai Semey		Ulytau

	1	X	2
	2.28	3.1	2.82	Watch
	2.31	3.25	2.79
	7.90	3.66	1.47	Watch
	2.3	2.9	2.88
	2.35	3.02	2.92
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.43 ↑ (2.5)	3.19 ↑ (3.15)	2.58 ↓ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Altai Semey
29.4%

Draw
31.6%

Ulytau
39.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.3%

28.8%

34.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.1%

28.6%

35.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Altai Semey has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Altai Semey's form might have worsened.

Ulytau has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Altai Semey than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Altai Semey, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ulytau than the current prediction. (-4%)

Altai Semey - Ulytau Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Aliakbar A. (G) 4. Micevic N. 88. Ivanov S. 6. Redzhepov T. 9. Gorshunov E. 8. Sapargaliyev A. 5. Saylybaev O. 17. Kukeev Z. 11. Dadaev I. 91. Khizhnichenko S. (C) 99. Stoisavljevic D.	78. Zakirov T. (G) 90. Martin D. 4. Chalkin M. 69. Maulenov D. 12. Afanasenko V. 6. Nursultanov K. (C) 9. Serikkul R. 17. Daniyarov B. 19. Mukanbetzhanov A. 20. Abylaykhan R. 21. Nurali O.
Substitutes
19. Gultyaev Z. 21. Jambor N. 23. Kenzhegulov D. 13. Konovalov I. (G) 16. Masudov Y. 70. Mitrofanov D. 18. Nazymkhanov A. 3. Odeoyibo S. 77. Popov S. 1. Sapargaliev A. (G) 15. Schmidt D. 46. Teterin A.	18. Bougnone A. 28. Bugulov G. 25. Bukhal G. 14. Harada H. 3. Keiler S. 7. Kishi K. 22. Kospayev E. 13. Malikaydar S. 77. Shauymbay M. 40. Shcherbakov S. (G) 11. Smith A. 10. Taubay A.
Coaches
Masudov V.	Mazbaev N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
12', 0 - 1, Abylaykhan R. ⚽, Martin D. (A),
35', Kukeev Z. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Stoisavljevic D. ↓, Mitrofanov D. ↑,
46', Ivanov S. ↓, Odeoyibo S. ↑,
46', Micevic N. ↓, Kenzhegulov D. ↑,
46', Martin D. ↓, Kospayev E. ↑,
54', 1 - 1, Gorshunov E. ⚽, Kukeev Z. (A),
55', Mukanbetzhanov A. ↓, Kishi K. ↑,
55', Kukeev Z. ↓, Jambor N. ↑,
64', 2 - 1, Gorshunov E. ⚽,
67', Dadaev I. ↓, Masudov Y. ↑,
69', Redzhepov T. 🟨,
69', 🟨,
83', 2 - 2, Chalkin M. ⚽, Maulenov D. (A),
90+2', Jambor N. 🟨,
90+6', Kospayev E. ↓, Harada H. ↑,
Extra Time (2 - 1)
95', 2 - 3, Kishi K. ⚽,
99', Chalkin M. ↓, Bugulov G. ↑,
103', Kishi K. 🟥,
110', Afanasenko V. 🟨,
111', 3 - 3, Saylybaev O. ⚽, Jambor N. (A),
119', 4 - 3, Jambor N. ⚽,

Preview

Recent form of Altai has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Ulytau's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Altai won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:8. (average 0.7:2.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Altai won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:6. (average 0.5:3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Altai Semey
Kazakh Premier League
25.04.26	Altai Semey - Zhenis	0:0 ✺
19.04.26	Kaisar - Altai Semey	1:1 ✺
12.04.26	Altai Semey - Ulytau	1:2 ✺
04.04.26	Ertis Pavlodar - Altai Semey	1:0 ✺
22.03.26	Altai Semey - Kaspiy Aktau	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 TTLLT
- FC Ulytau
Kazakh Premier League
26.04.26	Zhetysu - Ulytau	2:0 ✺
19.04.26	Ulytau - Tobol Kostanay	2:1 ✺
12.04.26	Altai Semey - Ulytau	1:2 ✺
Kazakh Cup
09.04.26	Taraz - Ulytau	4:1 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
05.04.26	Ulytau - Aktobe	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 LWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
12.04.26	Altai Semey - Ulytau	1:2
Kazakh First League
22.08.24	Altai Semey - Ulytau	0:4
04.07.24	Ulytau - Altai Semey	2:1

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