Match Info

Premier League - Round 24

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadion Metallurg (Zhezqazghan)

Where to Watch on TV:


Kazakhstan	Qazsport


	Ulytau		Atyrau

	1	X	2
	2.88	2.98	2.48
	3.04	3.25	2.66
	2.31	3.17	3.01	Watch
	2.68	3.67	2.36	Watch
	1.9	3.33	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.56 ↑ (1.9)	3.28 ↓ (3.33)	2.8 ↓ (3.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ulytau
37.1%

Draw
29%

Atyrau
33.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.3%

27%

25.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

26.2%

25%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ulytau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ulytau's form might have worsened.

Atyrau has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Atyrau's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ulytau than the current prediction. (+11.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ulytau, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atyrau than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Atyrau, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Ulytau - Atyrau Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Atyrau (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Pavlov S. (G) 28. Bugulov G. 19. Carrillo J. 15. Daniyarov B. 3. Keiler S. 17. Moldakaraev Z. 23. Pajovic J. 5. Slambekov D. (C) 10. Taubay A. 6. Terekhov Y. 11. Yusov D.	1. Khatkevich E. (G) 4. Afanasenko V. 17. Dorofeev K. 37. Kerimzhanov O. 3. Khadarkevich R. 14. Kybyray Y. 5. Milojko G. 23. Sovpel V. 7. Stasevich I. (C) 19. Yakovlev V. 6. Yudenkov R.
Substitutes
55. Alekperzade A. (G) 4. Chalkin M. 30. Marakvelidze P. 72. Maulenov D. 9. Mitrofanov D. 77. Shauymbay M. 40. Shcherbakov S. (G) 14. Tuleev A. 8. Vachiberadze B.	8. Abubakar R. 21. Akhaev B. 13. Baybosynov N. 33. Chunchukov T. 2. Ryzhuk D. 77. Smykov K. 35. Tokhtarov N. (G) 18. Trufanov Y. 9. Zgurskiy L.
Coaches
Mazbaev N.	Zhukovskiy V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
16', 1 - 0, Slambekov D. ⚽,
24', Yakovlev V. ↓, Trufanov Y. ↑,
43', Bugulov G. ↓, Mitrofanov D. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 5)
46', Afanasenko V. ↓, Abubakar R. ↑,
56', Terekhov Y. 🟥,
63', 1 - 1, Dorofeev K. ⚽,
66', Mitrofanov D. ↓, Maulenov D. ↑,
67', 1 - 2, Trufanov Y. ⚽, Stasevich I. (A),
80', 1 - 3, Dorofeev K. ⚽,
81', Dorofeev K. ↓, Chunchukov T. ↑,
81', Trufanov Y. ↓, Zgurskiy L. ↑,
83', 1 - 4, Yudenkov R. ⚽,
84', 1 - 5, Zgurskiy L. ⚽,
89', Yudenkov R. ↓, Baybosynov N. ↑,
90+1', Yusov D. ↓, Shauymbay M. ↑,
90+1', Moldakaraev Z. ↓, Tuleev A. ↑,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 10 and 14 in the zone Relegation ~ First League).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Atyrau may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Ulytau might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Ulytau won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Ulytau
Kazakh Premier League
20.09.25	Ulytau - Aktobe	2:1 ✺
13.09.25	Turan Turkistan - Ulytau	1:1 ✺
24.08.25	Ulytau - Ordabasy	2:1 ✺
17.08.25	Astana - Ulytau	4:0 ✺
09.08.25	Ulytau - Kyzylzhar	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.3 WTWLT
- FC Atyrau
Kazakh Premier League
13.09.25	Atyrau - Tobol Kostanay	1:0 ✺
23.08.25	Kaisar - Atyrau	0:0 ✺
17.08.25	Zhetysu - Atyrau	0:0 ✺
09.08.25	Atyrau - Turan Turkistan	1:1 ✺
03.08.25	Ordabasy - Atyrau	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 30.2 WTTTT

Latest Head to Head

Kazakh Premier League
14.06.25	Atyrau - Ulytau	0:1

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