Match Info

TURKEY: 1. LIG - ROUND 20

Date: 28 January 2024, Sunday

Location: Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadi (Izmir)

Referee: Dursun Y. (Tur)


	Altay		Kocaelispor

	1	X	2
	17	5.5	1.2	Watch
	12.5	5.75	1.21
	15	6	1.2	Watch
	11	5.2	1.19
	11.79	5.75	1.16
	17	5.5	1.12
	14.6	6	1.19
	14	5.4	1.19
Avarage Now (Initially)	14.11 ↑ (4.9)	5.64 ↑ (3.82)	1.18 ↓ (1.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Altay
6.5%

Draw
16.2%

Kocaelispor
77.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.7%

24%

57.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.2%

23.4%

55.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Altay has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Altay's form might have worsened.

Kocaelispor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+20%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Kocaelispor's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Altay than the current prediction. (+12.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Altay, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kocaelispor than the current prediction. (-21.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Kocaelispor, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	0%	57.1%

Altay - Kocaelispor Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Altay will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Kocaelispor will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
45. Caliskan M. (G) 17. Sarikaya S. 44. Altunbudak K. 5. Ozdemir S. 88. Ozkaya O. 77. Efe O. 6. Gulselam C. 23. Demir M. 28. Gunduz M. 7. Erdogan E. 11. Uluc M.	35. Degirmenci G. (G) 32. Yilmaz M. 55. Abdioglu Y. 4. Ortakaya E. 19. Turan A. 44. Vukovic J. 47. Sheydayev R. 10. Candeias D. 8. Celik C. 14. Beridze G. 99. Tanque D.
Substitutes
30. Baycan C. 4. Colak H. 32. Gezer A. 25. Gundem T. 21. Kizilkuyu A. 9. Kucukdeniz N. 34. Ogruce E. 13. Ozcelik U. (G) 3. Tekin Y. 20. Yetkin E.	70. Alici B. 41. Amaral J. 24. Breze I. 7. Ekinci C. 11. Kouakou C. 53. Oksuz B. 5. Sarman H. A. 1. Tekin H. (G) 45. Tunali M. 21. Yildiz B.
Coaches
Simsek Y.	Saglam E.

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ 1. Lig (Play Offs: Final)).

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Altay could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Kocaelispor is certain favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Altay won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Altay won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Altay SK
Turkish First League
21.01.24	Tuzlaspor - Altay	2:0 ✺
15.01.24	Altay - Şanlıurfaspor	1:0 ✺
24.12.23	Altay - Keçiörengücü	2:1 ✺
20.12.23	Adanaspor - Altay	0:1 ✺
11.12.23	Altay - Boluspor	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.3 LWWWL
- Kocaelispor
Turkish First League
20.01.24	Kocaelispor - Eyüpspor	2:1 ✺
14.01.24	Manisa FK - Kocaelispor	2:1 ✺
23.12.23	Sakaryaspor - Kocaelispor	3:1 ✺
19.12.23	Kocaelispor - Bodrumspor	1:1 ✺
09.12.23	Bandırmaspor - Kocaelispor	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Turkish First League
27.08.23	Kocaelispor - Altay	3:2
Turkish 3 Lig Play Offs
14.05.17	Altay - Kocaelispor	2:1 penalties
Turkish 3 Lig Group 1
19.03.17	Altay - Kocaelispor	1:1
06.11.16	Kocaelispor - Altay	5:3

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