Match Info

Torneo Federal - Round 8

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio José María Minella (Mar del Plata)


	Alvarado		Santamarina de Tandil

	1	X	2
	1.6	3.15	5.9
	1.45	3.48	7.08
	1.74	3.05	5.93	Watch
	1.5	3.25	7
	1.48	3.4	7.55
	1.45	3.65	7.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↑ (1.45)	3.33 ↓ (3.65)	6.81 ↓ (7.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alvarado
59.3%

Draw
27.4%

Santamarina de Tandil
13.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.8%

24.9%

12.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.3%

23.9%

11.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alvarado has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Santamarina de Tandil has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alvarado than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alvarado, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santamarina de Tandil than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Alvarado - Santamarina de Tandil Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Alvarado (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bilbao E. (C) 11. Castellano A. 2. Centurion F. 9. Cervera G. 6. Chiozza L. 5. Federico T. 10. Gutierrez S. 4. Hofstetter P. J. 8. Mansilla M. 3. Perez M. 7. Speck N.	1. Moris U. (G) 8. Chavez T. 7. Di Carlo R. 4. Dominguez L. 3. Ferrari T. 5. Igartua N. 6. Lucero I. 10. Marchiori T. 2. Romat N. 9. Romero T. 11. San Martin B.
Substitutes
13. Berra T. 14. Fernandez T. 17. Makarte R. 20. Melean A. 19. Miori M. 16. Nunez L. 18. Pinoni F. 15. Sosa G. 12. Zapata A. (G)	15. Alvarenga L. 20. Franco N. 13. Gomez J. 18. Ijurco M. 17. Meza F. 16. Pata L. 14. Quinteros V. 19. Sposato T. 12. Turnes I. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Mansilla M. ⚽,
4', 2 - 0, Cervera G. ⚽,
9', 3 - 0, Cervera G. ⚽,
45', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
69', 🟨,
76', 🟨,
79', 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 5 in the zone Torneo Federal (Losers stage: ) and 6 in the zone Torneo Federal (Losers stage: )).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Santamarina may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Alvarado is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Alvarado won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Including home match between the teams, Alvarado won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Alvarado
Argentinian Torneo Federal
03.05.26	Germinal - Alvarado	1:0 ✺
26.04.26	Alvarado - Villa Mitre	1:1 ✺
18.04.26	Círculo Deportivo - Alvarado	0:1 ✺
11.04.26	Alvarado - Kimberley de Mar del Plata	0:0 ✺
03.04.26	Sol de Mayo - Alvarado	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LTWTT
- Santamarina de Tandil
Argentinian Torneo Federal
25.04.26	Santamarina de Tandil - Germinal	0:0 ✺
19.04.26	Villa Mitre - Santamarina de Tandil	0:0 ✺
11.04.26	Santamarina de Tandil - Círculo Deportivo	4:0 ✺
05.04.26	Kimberley de Mar del Plata - Santamarina de Tandil	0:0 ✺
28.03.26	Santamarina de Tandil - Sol de Mayo	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.8 TTWTL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
16.04.22	Alvarado - Santamarina de Tandil	3:0

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