Match Info

Torneo Federal - Round 7

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio El Fortin (Rawson) 🌤️ ...


	Germinal		Alvarado

	1	X	2
	3	2.7	2.37
	2.98	2.72	2.45	Watch
	3.04	2.55	2.49
	3.23	2.59	2.67	Watch
	3	2.63	2.5
	3.08	2.7	2.46
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.06 ↓ (3.14)	2.65 ↓ (2.77)	2.49 ↑ (2.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Germinal
29.6%

Draw
34.1%

Alvarado
36.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

29.2%

33.2%

37.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29%

33%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Germinal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Alvarado has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Germinal than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alvarado than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Germinal - Alvarado Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Molini L. (G) 9. Carcamo F. 5. Macaroff N. 3. Moreno A. 8. Nunez G. 7. Oliveri T. 2. Rios N. 10. Rojas J. 6. Teran I. 11. Velazquez J. 4. Yocco L.	1. Bilbao E. (G) 6. Berra T. 4. Centurion F. 9. Cervera G. 8. Chiozza L. 7. Federico T. 3. Fernandez L. 2. Fernandez T. 11. Gutierrez S. 5. Mansilla M. 10. Miori M.
Substitutes
20. De Hoyos D. 18. Gonzalez A. 12. Grigera F. (G) 17. Lires M. 16. Martinez J. C. 19. Navarro G. 14. Silva J. 13. Sveruk L. 15. Veloso L.	18. Castellano A. 12. Gonzalez N. (G) 16. Hofstetter P. J. 17. Makarte R. 14. Nunez L. 20. Perez M. 13. Radetich F. 15. Sosa G. 19. Speck N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', 🟨,
14', 🟨,
15', 1 - 0, Nunez G. ⚽,
36', 🟨,
40', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Miori M. ↓, Speck N. ↑,
54', 🟨,
59', 🟥,
67', 🟨,
71', 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 6 in the zone Torneo Federal (Losers stage: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Federal (Winners stage: )).

Recent performances by Germinal have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Alvarado is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Alvarado may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Alvarado - the odds 2.44 are the expected chance of winning is 37.65%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Germinal
Argentinian Torneo Federal
25.04.26	Santamarina de Tandil - Germinal	0:0 ✺
12.04.26	Germinal - Villa Mitre	1:0 ✺
04.04.26	Círculo Deportivo - Germinal	2:1 ✺
29.03.26	Germinal - Kimberley de Mar del Plata	0:0 ✺
22.03.26	Sol de Mayo - Germinal	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 TWLTT
- CA Alvarado
Argentinian Torneo Federal
26.04.26	Alvarado - Villa Mitre	1:1 ✺
18.04.26	Círculo Deportivo - Alvarado	0:1 ✺
11.04.26	Alvarado - Kimberley de Mar del Plata	0:0 ✺
03.04.26	Sol de Mayo - Alvarado	0:0 ✺
29.03.26	Alvarado - Guillermo Brown	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 TWTTW

Germinal - Alvarado