Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 1

Date: 4 April 2024, Thursday

Location: Estadio Municipal de El Alto (El Alto)

Referee: Rodrigues de Souza F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Brazil	ESPN 4


	Always Ready		Independiente Medellín

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.75	4.75	Watch
	1.73	3.7	4.5
	1.72	3.75	4.5	Watch
	1.75	3.7	4.7
	1.76	3.69	4.44
	1.65	3.7	4.5	Watch
	1.72	3.68	4.66	Watch
	1.68	3.75	4.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↑ (1.45)	3.72 ↓ (4.69)	4.58 ↓ (5.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Always Ready
54.4%

Draw
25.2%

Independiente Medellín
20.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.3%

19.9%

15.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.6%

21.2%

14.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Always Ready has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Always Ready's form might have worsened.

Independiente Medellín has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Always Ready than the current prediction. (+14.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Always Ready, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente Medellín than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Independiente Medellín, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
53.3%	20%	26.7%

Always Ready - Independiente Medellín Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Always Ready will win (votes: 8 - 53.3%). Ind Medellín will win (votes: 4 - 26.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Always Ready: 28.1% – 78.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Baroja A. (G) 14. Carabali J. 5. Suarez M. 18. Caicedo L. 2. Medina D. 13. Cuellar H. 11. Rodriguez D. 7. Herrera J. 21. Robson Matheus 10. Terrazas A. 9. Tanque W.	25. Chaux E. (G) 2. Chaverra L. 24. Ortiz J. 29. Palacios J. 28. Luis Orejuela 23. Torijano F. 15. Alvarado J. 5. Lima P. 8. Garcia M. 31. Moreno D. 17. Fory J.
Substitutes
31. Abastoflor C. 38. Alanoca A. 19. Briceno J. 8. Del Valle A. 15. Flores Gutierrez W. 27. Martinez J. 40. Paniagua M. 99. Rodriguez E. (G) 16. Salazar M. 6. Taborga E. 3. Vaca P. 30. Zenteno Rojas A.	16. Davila A. 1. Gomez Palacio Y. A. (G) 26. Graciano C. 77. Jhon Vasquez 13. Londono D. 10. Monsalve M. 4. Palacios M. 7. Peralta J. 14. Perlaza B. 11. Plata A. 21. Santacruz S.
Coaches
Villegas O.	Arias A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
34', Tanque W. 🟨,
34', Luis Orejuela 🟨,
45', 1 - 0, Tanque W. ⚽, Terrazas A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Luis Orejuela ↓, Plata A. ↑,
55', 2 - 0, Lima P. (Own goal),
61', Caicedo L. ↓, Vaca P. ↑,
62', Rodriguez D. ↓, Del Valle A. ↑,
62', Garcia M. ↓, Peralta J. ↑,
62', Palacios J. ↓, Jhon Vasquez ↑,
63', Alvarado J. ↓, Perlaza B. ↑,
65', Lima P. 🟨,
75', Moreno D. ↓, Graciano C. ↑,
77', Tanque W. ↓, Briceno J. ↑,
86', Terrazas A. ↓, Alanoca A. ↑,
86', Herrera J. ↓, Salazar M. ↑,

Preview

Always Ready is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Independiente Medellín is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Always Ready could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Always Ready is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Always Ready
Bolivian Division Profesional
31.03.24	Always Ready - Independiente Petroleros	0:1 ✺
28.03.24	GVCD San José - Always Ready	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.03.24	Nacional Montevideo - Always Ready	3:1 penalties ✺
Bolivian Division Profesional
12.03.24	Always Ready - Guabirá	1:0 ✺
09.03.24	GVCD San José - Always Ready	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLLWT
- Independiente Medellín
Colombian Primera A
31.03.24	Independiente Medellín - América de Cali	1:4 ✺
22.03.24	Deportivo La Equidad - Independiente Medellín	1:2 ✺
16.03.24	Independiente Medellín - Once Caldas	1:2 ✺
09.03.24	Deportes Tolima - Independiente Medellín	2:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
05.03.24	Deportes Tolima - Independiente Medellín	0:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 LWLTW

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