Match Info

BRAZIL: SERIE A - ROUND 21

Date: 27 August 2023, Sunday

Location: Estádio Raimundo Sampaio (Belo Horizonte)

Referee: Pereira de Lima R. J. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Serbia	Arena Sport


	América Mineiro		São Paulo

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.2	2.75	Watch
	2.7	3.25	2.65
	2.68	3.28	2.86
	2.6	3.32	2.69	Watch
	2.65	3.2	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↓ (2.69)	3.25 ↑ (3.22)	2.72 ↑ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

América Mineiro
35.7%

Draw
29.3%

São Paulo
35%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.1%

29.3%

35.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.2%

30.2%

34.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

América Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for América Mineiro than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	45%	25%

América Mineiro - São Paulo Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. América MG will win (votes: 6 - 30%). São Paulo will win (votes: 5 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 45%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.2% – 66.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Matheus Cavichioli (G) 75. Rodriguinho 3. Iago Maidana 45. Ricardo Silva 22. Danilo Avelar 6. Marlon 21. Lucas Kal 8. Juninho (C) 5. Emmanuel Martinez 17. Gonzalo Mastriani 11. Felipe Azevedo	23. Rafael (G) 45. Nathan Mendes 44. Matheus Belem 28. Franco A. 30. Joao Moreira 8. Luan 29. Pablo Maia 19. Rodriguez J. 15. Michel Araujo 27. Wellington Rato 31. Juan
Substitutes
16. Ale 26. Burgos E. 28. Cascardo Lemos B. 80. Cazares 20. Daniel Borges 33. Eder Ferreira 14. Mateus Pasinato (G) 23. Mendez J. 47. Paulinho Boia 79. Renato Kayzer 65. Rodrigo Varanda 9. Wellington Paulista	25. Alisson 20. Gabriel Neves 93. Jandrei (G) 9. Jonathan Calleri 7. Lucas Moura 10. Luciano 21. Mendez J. 12. Pato 13. Rafinha 5. Robert Arboleda 11. Rodrigo Nestor 6. Welington
Coaches
Bustos F.	Junior D.

Preview

Outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches América MG won 0.

América MG is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches São Paulo is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

América MG could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

There will not play in São Paulo: Giuliano Galoppo (Knee Injury) Patryck (Injury)

There are questionable in América MG: Adyson (Injury)

There are questionable in São Paulo: Caio Paulista (Injury) Erison (Muscle Injury)

Last 11 head-to-head matches América MG won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 8-16.

Including matches at home between the teams América MG won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- América Mineiro
Copa Sudamericana
24.08.23	América Mineiro - Fortaleza	1:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
19.08.23	Fluminense - América Mineiro	3:1 ✺
13.08.23	América Mineiro - Goiás	0:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
10.08.23	Red Bull Bragantino - América Mineiro	3:4 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
06.08.23	Bahia - América Mineiro	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LLLWL
- São Paulo FC
Copa Sudamericana
24.08.23	LDU Quito - São Paulo	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
19.08.23	São Paulo - Botafogo RJ	0:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
16.08.23	São Paulo - Corinthians	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
13.08.23	Flamengo - São Paulo	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
10.08.23	São Paulo - San Lorenzo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
22.04.23	São Paulo - América Mineiro	3:0
06.10.22	América Mineiro - São Paulo	1:2
Copa do Brasil
18.08.22	América Mineiro - São Paulo	2:2
28.07.22	São Paulo - América Mineiro	1:0
Brazilian Serie A
12.06.22	São Paulo - América Mineiro	1:0
09.12.21	América Mineiro - São Paulo	2:0
22.09.21	São Paulo - América Mineiro	0:0

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